Amit Kukreja
AN ABSOLUTELY CRAZY FRIDAY THAT MIGHT END GREEN | MARKET CLOSE
10/17/2025, 9:53:10 PM
Economic Summary
- Private credit opacity (and potential issues in the leveraged loan market) is creating short-term investor caution, but many panelists view the problems as idiosyncratic rather than systemic.
- Tom Lee expects Fed easing after an extended pause, which combined with cash on the sidelines and AI strength could produce a typical 4th-quarter gain (5% base case, possibly 7–10%).
- AI capex remains a tailwind, but several large tech firms may face slower incremental CapEx growth next year as buybacks and cash-flow allocation reach limits (mentions: NVDA, GOOGL, AMD, AMZN).
- Earnings season has started strong with many beats; banks broadly looked well capitalized and large money-center banks could absorb isolated regional stress.
- Small-cap earnings are expected to show strong growth (cited ~48% growth in Q3), supporting a case for IWM outperformance versus the S&P.
- Crypto recently experienced record deleveraging after a VIX spike and tariff headlines; levered longs are low, implying local capitulation but not necessarily the top of the cycle.
Bullish
- AI-driven demand and corporate AI capex could keep markets supported into year-end.
- Tom Lee views regional banks and small caps as buy-the-dip opportunities (asymmetric upside).
- Fed easing expectations plus institutional cash on the sidelines could fuel a year-end rally.
Bearish
- Opacity in private credit and leveraged loan markets creates investor caution and potential flow disruption.
- Speculative momentum names that ran up wildly are at risk of large drawdowns if enthusiasm fades.
- Crypto faced a historic deleveraging and may remain pressured as investors rotate into gold.
Bullish tickers
IWMKREAMZNNVDA
Bearish tickers
OKLOOPENREDDIT
HOOD
1 price targets
150
Bullish
Host said he liked Robinhood at 150 for his portfolio as a potential buy level.
Bearish
Host thinks Robinhood's valuation run was excessive and is cautious about earnings justifying higher prices.
AMZN
1 price targets
1000
Bullish
Long-term bull case: AWS margins and scale could push revenue to ~$1 trillion and market cap much higher over time.
Bearish
Concerns that heavy infrastructure and depreciation weigh on GAAP EPS and could complicate near-term expectations.
NVDA
Bullish
Seen as a primary beneficiary of AI capex and U.S. chip manufacturing momentum.
Bearish
Short-term volatility possible after big run; some questioned downside to levels like 165–170.
IWM
Bullish
Tom Lee favors buying the dip in small caps; expects outsized earnings growth relative to S&P.
Bearish
Small caps had a rough week and are vulnerable to growth scares and liquidity pullbacks.
KRE
Bullish
Tom Lee argues regionals are oversold and could rebound if problems are isolated.
Bearish
Regional bank ETF hit by recent bank-specific credit headlines and knee-jerk selling.
PLTR
Bullish
Referenced positively as part of hosts' larger positions and interest in mission-driven companies.
Bearish
Mentioned as a target of public commentary and competitive tension with Salesforce; volatility possible.
TSLA
Bullish
Noted as a daily winner; continues to show momentum in the tape.
Bearish
Auto/technology exposure could be sensitive to policy or execution headlines.
AAPL
Bullish
Stock reacted positively to a Formula One deal and was up on the day.
CRM
Bullish
Company fundamentals and contract wins maintain a compelling growth narrative despite CEO controversy.
Bearish
CEO Mark Benioff's public comments and perceived inconsistency raise governance and sentiment concerns.
MSFT
Bullish
Seen as steady; trading in a range around recent levels with positive long-term AI exposure.
GOOGL
Bullish
Large-cap AI beneficiary that has been doing significant buybacks and capex, though future growth in buybacks/CapEx may moderate.
SOFI
Bullish
Consensus view expects another strong beat-and-raise pattern; consistent strong earnings history noted.
Bearish
Host is cautious and not buying ahead of earnings despite a history of upside surprises.
AMD
Bullish
Part of the AI/semiconductor conversation and mentioned in capex context.
PYPL
Bullish
Callouts that PayPal showed strength on the day despite prior stablecoin issues.
RKLB
Bullish
Rocket Lab called out as a high-conviction holding by the host with real revenue.
IONQ
Bullish
Quantum names experienced intraday volatility but some recovered; IONQ among those discussed.
LMND
Bullish
Mentioned for a headline about offering Tesla FSD-related coverage, which drove a modest move.
People mentioned
Tom LeeJamie DimonSteve LeismanScottJensen HuangMark BenioffAlex KarpMattAdamDonald TrumpTannerDougie