Amit Kukreja
An Exclusive Interview With The Man Who Spent 5 Years Studying Palantir's Alex Karp
11/1/2025, 9:00:18 PM
Economic Summary
- Palantir (PLTR) sells analytics software that helps organizations use their own data rather than collecting or monetizing user data, differentiating it from consumer ad-driven firms like Meta (META) and Google (GOOGL).
- Palantir's long road to profitability (first profitable quarter only in 2022) created investor skepticism, but recent share-price surges and a retail investor base transformed public recognition and valuation.
- The company is deeply embedded across U.S. government agencies and in geopolitically significant deployments (e.g., Israel, Ukraine), implying large government TAM and upside if it becomes a standard 'operating system' for agencies.
Bullish
- PLTR's software is highly regarded by customers and can unlock value from customers' own data, not by hoovering data.
- Deep entrenchment in US government systems gives PLTR large addressable market and potential to become a de facto infrastructure provider.
- Real-world deployments (e.g., Israel, Ukraine) and statesman-like CEO profile raise credibility and strategic demand.
Bearish
- Palantir (PLTR) is linked publicly to surveillance and immigration enforcement, raising reputational and political risk that can deter customers.
- Association with Peter Thiel and Trump-era policies fuels activist backlash and media scrutiny, harming brand and adoption.
- Long period without profitability (first profitable quarter only in 2022) left institutional investors skeptical for years.
Bullish tickers
PLTR
Bearish tickers
PLTRMETAGOOGL
PLTR
3 price targets
102007
Bullish
Highly regarded analytics platform, deeply embedded in government, potential to become core infrastructure with large long-term upside.
Bearish
Visibility into controversial government uses and political controversies (immigration, surveillance) risks contract losses and activism.
META
Bullish
Not discussed as an investment case; referenced as a large, profitable consumer-data driven company.
Bearish
Used as a contrast to Palantir: consumer data monetization fuels public distrust and regulatory scrutiny.
GOOGL
Bullish
Not presented as a direct bullish comparator in the discussion.
Bearish
Mentioned as part of consumer-data businesses that collect user data, a contrast to Palantir's model.
IBM
Bullish
Analogy: Palantir aspires to become what IBM once was to enterprise/government computing.
Bearish
Used only as an historical analogy for tech becoming government backbone; no direct bearish case discussed.
PYPL
Bullish
Referenced to illustrate early inspiration for data-driven detection ideas.
Bearish
Mentioned only in analogy (PayPal) regarding early data-driven product ideas; no direct bearish case.
AIRBUS
Bullish
Example of European enterprise customer relationships that boosted Palantir's credibility abroad.
Bearish
Referenced in anecdote about Palantir helping with systems issues; no direct bearish investment case.
BP
Bullish
Used as example in analogy about becoming foundational to large corporates/government.
Bearish
Mentioned in passing as part of an analogy about industry incumbents; no explicit bearish case.
People mentioned
Michael SteinbergerAlex KarpPeter ThielBen KarpMatt JohnsonNathan GettingsJuergen HabermasTom EndersAki JainRichard BransonDavid BoiesJoe BidenKamala HarrisDonald Trump