Amit Kukreja
Bessent Gets ANGRY At China, Nvidia Gets A MASSIVE UPGRADE, Amazon Is Now CHEAP | Daily Recap
10/16/2025, 12:18:39 AM
Economic Summary
- U.S.–China rhetoric heated after statements urging the World Bank to end support for China and Trump re‑raising tariffs; markets reacted but broadly shrugged unless escalation occurs, pressuring rare‑earth names (USAR, MP, TMQ, CRML, LAC).
- Bank of America data showed last week was among the largest ever for stock inflows (fifth largest overall) and the biggest week of inflows when the market was down ≥1%, complemented by massive option activity (≈108M contracts), implying a robust buy‑the‑dip environment.
- NVIDIA received a street‑high price target upgrade to $320 and partnered with BlackRock and a UAE investor on a roughly $40B data‑center deal, signaling accelerating capital deployment into data‑center capacity and boosting related names and miners.
- Amazon’s EV/EBITDA is trading near historic lows (≈17.3 versus MAG7 average ≈39.3), AWS still adding large net dollars despite slower growth rates, and advertising (~$61B) is a high‑margin growth channel, supporting a long‑term bullish thesis (speaker suggests ~$300 nearer‑term level).
- Gold is a top crowded trade among large fund managers while average investor allocation is low (~2.4%); gold up ~60% YTD versus bitcoin ~20% and a weaker dollar, raising questions about further retail adoption and commodity momentum.
Bullish
- Record inflows and heavy option buying suggest a strong buy‑the‑dip market.
- Amazon appears undervalued vs. MAG7 peers with room for operating‑leverage margin improvement.
- NVIDIA secular data‑center growth and analyst upgrades support large upside expectations.
- $40B data‑center deal (NVIDIA+BlackRock+UAE+Microsoft) should benefit data‑center operators and leasers.
Bearish
- Escalation in U.S.-China tensions (tariffs, supply‑chain controls) could hurt trade‑exposed and rare‑earth stocks.
- Rare‑earth and battery names sank ~15–20% on policy headlines, showing sector vulnerability to government action.
- 5x leveraged ETFs are extremely volatile and risk large losses for retail holders.
- Gold becoming a crowded trade among big fund managers could limit further upside if crowding reverses.
Bullish tickers
AMZNNVDAAMDBLKMSFTCOIN
Bearish tickers
USARMPTMQCRMLLACABAP
AMZN
1 price targets
300
Bullish
EV/EBITDA at historic lows, strong ad business growth and potential operating‑leverage margin gains argue for upside.
Bearish
AWS growth lags GCP/Azure and public narratives around Amazon could keep valuation muted; stock could remain flat near-term.
NVDA
2 price targets
320300
Bullish
Street upgrades reflect much larger 2027 data‑center TAM and HSBC/Cantor forecasts; NVIDIA driving data‑center expansion and partnering on $40B capacity deal.
Bearish
Huge implied expectations and potential for valuation volatility despite upgrades; lofty ultimate market‑cap scenarios could compress returns if growth slows.
AMD
Bullish
Rebounded after Oracle GPU announcement, benefiting from cloud partnership momentum.
Bearish
Macro noise can mute momentum; faces strong competition in GPUs and datacenter space.
BLK
Bullish
Co‑investor with NVIDIA on a major data‑center acquisition, positioning it to gain from infrastructure growth.
Bearish
Partnering on large deals may dilute focus or returns for some investors.
MSFT
Bullish
Included among hyperscalers likely to lease capacity from new data centers, benefiting from increased demand.
COIN
Bullish
Mentioned as an underlying for new leveraged ETFs, reflecting continued retail/institutional interest in crypto exposure.
Bearish
High volatility and exposure in leveraged product lineups could magnify downside.
USAR
Bullish
Previously strong momentum in rare‑earth space from supply‑concern narratives.
Bearish
Sector sold off after policy headlines; vulnerable to export‑control and geopolitical risk.
MP
Bullish
Part of rare‑earth theme benefiting from secular supply‑chain focus.
Bearish
Down on policy headlines and export‑control fears tied to U.S.–China tensions.
TMQ
Bullish
Positions in critical minerals make it a beneficiary if onshore supply initiatives accelerate.
Bearish
Sharp intraday losses following government statements; policy risk weighs heavily.
CRML
Bullish
Could benefit from any U.S. push to secure critical mineral supply chains.
Bearish
Policy headlines drove day‑over‑day weakness; sensitive to geopolitical shifts.
LAC
Bullish
Exposure to battery/critical minerals demand supports long‑term thesis if policy favors domestic supply.
Bearish
Down with the rare‑earth/battery cohort on political and grant‑related news.
ABAP
Bullish
Battery company exposure to secular electrification trends could support recovery if funding issues resolved.
Bearish
Dropped ~20% after losing a DOE grant; short‑term funding and grant risk evident.
People mentioned
BesantXiDonald TrumpJensenPaul Tudor Jones