Amit Kukreja
CHINA TENSIONS CONTINUE, AMD UP 10%, UNITED EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
10/15/2025, 9:51:37 PM
Economic Summary
- Last week produced record single-stock inflows — the fifth largest ever and biggest for a week with a ≥1% down day — signaling strong "buy-the-dip" investor behavior.
- Major banks (JPMorgan, Citigroup) report consumer credit performance and delinquencies in line with or below expectations, suggesting consumer resilience that supports travel and retail names like UAL and JBHT.
- Federal policy and rates outlook: market participants expect eventual Fed rate cuts (discussion of Fed funds possibly around 2.5% next year) which could fuel further risk-on moves; industrial policy rhetoric (Bessent) signals potential government equity stakes in strategic firms, especially around rare earths and supply-chain onshoring.
- Amazon-related AI tailwinds: Anthropic's rapid revenue ramp (reported expectations) implies meaningful AWS workload demand, strengthening Amazon's AWS growth narrative while AMZN trades at a ~56% EV/EBITDA discount to MAG-7 peers.
- Gold positioning: surveys show gold as the most crowded long trade among global fund managers, but average institutional allocation remains low (2.4%), implying potential additional inflows into gold (and possibly crypto) if sentiment shifts.
Bullish
- United beat EPS and guided to record operating revenue.
- J.B. Hunt posted strong EPS, signaling resilient transportation demand.
- AMD strength on GPU/Oracle news; semiconductor group broadly positive.
- Amazon appears deeply discounted vs MAG-7 on EV/EBITDA multiples.
- HIMS product launch drove a sizable short squeeze and adoption interest.
Bearish
- BitFarms announced a $300 million convertible note offering, diluting shareholders.
- American Battery Technology lost a DOE grant, triggering a sharp after-hours crash.
- Speculative small caps (EOSE, ABAT, Oklo, Ondas) vulnerable to volatility and FOMO selling.
- High short-float names can squeeze then reverse quickly; traders may lack conviction to hold.
Bullish tickers
UALJBHTAMDAMZNHIMS
Bearish tickers
BITFABATEOSEOKLO
HIMS
3 price targets
62.416553
Bullish
New HERS menopause product launch drove a short squeeze and meaningful intraday move, supporting demand thesis.
Bearish
Highly shorted and volatile; founder commentary and product launches may not sustain long-term momentum.
AMD
3 price targets
240239.24237
Bullish
Strong GPU-related catalysts (Oracle GPU news) lifted shares toward the 240 level after hours.
Bearish
Could fail to hold breakout levels if broader semiconductor momentum stalls.
AMZN
2 price targets
214215
Bullish
Deep EV/EBITDA discount versus MAG-7 peers and Anthropic tailwinds for AWS argue for upside.
Bearish
Tariff narrative and AWS growth uncertainty justify part of its valuation discount.
UAL
1 price targets
103.86
Bullish
Beat EPS, guided to highest total operating revenue in history and plans $1B investment for 2026.
Bearish
After-hours pullback despite strong results suggests profit-taking risk.
JBHT
Bullish
Reported strong EPS beat and revenue upside, signaling robust freight and logistics demand.
Bearish
Logistics cyclicality could reverse if macro demand softens.
BITF
Bullish
Trading strength prior to the offering reflected miner rallies, but dilution dominates near-term view.
Bearish
Announced $300M convertible note offering, dilutive and pressured the after-hours price.
ABAT
Bullish
Had seen rapid speculative gains amid rare-earth/battery enthusiasm, indicating some investor interest.
Bearish
Shares plunged after a loss of a DOE grant and termination of a material agreement.
EOSE
Bullish
Earlier momentum had retail interest, but fundamentals remain uncertain.
Bearish
Sharp after-hours decline with unclear news, demonstrating speculative risk.
ASTS
2 price targets
99.8296.36
Bullish
Broke above key levels intraday and remains above 90, showing strength.
Bearish
Could retreat if high-beta sector rotation continues.
RKLB
3 price targets
73.9769.3273.5
Bullish
Broke higher intraday into the mid-70s, reflecting renewed momentum in space/drone names.
Bearish
High volatility and speculative positioning could produce sharp reversals.
PLTR
3 price targets
171180190
Bullish
DCA purchases reflect conviction; potential margin and revenue inflection could push shares higher.
Bearish
Valuation considered aggressive; high multiples increase downside risk on any execution miss.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpPaul Tudor JonesRussell VogtEric TrumpDonald Trump JrAdam SchiffHillary ClintonNarendra ModiBessentJesseSteveMatt TannerChrisJenniferKarpMorgan