Amit Kukreja
CPI, ORACLE TAKES ON 40B OF DEBT, TRUMP IS MAD AT CANADA, EARNINGS CONTINUE TO CRUSH | MARKET OPEN
10/24/2025, 12:04:05 PM
Economic Summary
- September CPI headline rose 3.0% year-over-year (vs 3.1% expected) and core CPI also 3.0%, cooler than forecast and initially drove yields lower and equity gains.
- Energy was a major CPI driver in the month (gasoline +4.1%, energy +1.5%), while shelter, airline fares, recreation and apparel also pushed monthly inflation higher.
- PMI data beat expectations (Composite 54.8 vs 53.9; Services 55.2 vs 54.2), supporting the view of ongoing economic activity alongside the cooler CPI.
- Despite cooler prints, inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, so rate-cut timing/scale may be delayed even as market-implied cut probabilities stay elevated.
Bullish
- CPI came in cooler than expectations (3.0% vs 3.1%), sending yields down and stocks up.
- Large Oracle-financed data-center buildout signals strong AI infrastructure demand, boosting suppliers.
- Earnings season showing beats (Intel, banks), supporting risk assets and semiconductor rally.
- PMI prints beat expectations, reinforcing signs of resilient activity and equity upside.
Bearish
- Oracle financing $38B of data centers with debt — risky if AI/data-center ROI disappoints.
- CPI remains well above the Fed's 2% target (3% YoY), limiting the pace/scale of future cuts.
- Market still vulnerable to headlines/tweets and momentum reversals despite rallies.
- Some speculative/momentum names retain lofty valuations and could retra ce if earnings disappoint.
Bullish tickers
NVDAAMDINTCGOOGLAMZNSOFIMETA
Bearish tickers
ORCLBAHOPEN
ORCL
Bullish
Massive financing signals institutional conviction in AI/data-center demand, lifting data-center suppliers.
Bearish
Took on ~$38B of debt to finance data centers; large leverage risk if AI demand or ROI falls short.
NVDA
Bullish
AI capex tailwinds and semiconductor leadership are driving continued buying and sector leadership.
Bearish
High valuation and event-driven volatility could cause sharp pullbacks on negative headlines.
TSLA
Bullish
Holding higher levels and heavy retail/options activity can support rebounds after dips.
Bearish
Noted selling pressure around key options strikes (450), making short-term volatility likely.
SOFI
2 price targets
2426
Bullish
JP Morgan upgrade (price target 24→26) and fintech momentum make SoFi a beneficiary of retail/crypto flows.
Bearish
Earnings and execution risk around new verticals and tokenization initiatives could disappoint expectations.
GOOGL
Bullish
Reached new highs (≈$260) amid strong ad/AI narrative and positioning into earnings.
Bearish
Regulatory/European issues (e.g., DSA scrutiny) and concentrated positioning could pressure shares on negative news.
META
1 price targets
900
Bullish
Street upgrades (to $900) and AI investments/partnerships underpin upside into earnings.
Bearish
EU regulatory scrutiny and large AI spending raise execution risk and could temper enthusiasm.
AMD
Bullish
Semiconductor/AI capex strength is driving AMD to multiyear highs alongside sector peers.
Bearish
Momentum-driven gains could reverse on semiconductor cycle weakness or disappointing guidance.
INTC
Bullish
Strong earnings beat (well above expectations) has reignited interest and drove a large rally.
Bearish
Recent intraday momentum faded at times; sustaining gains depends on follow-through after a big beat.
BAH
Bullish
National security exposure and potential AI commercialization could provide long-term revenue opportunities.
Bearish
Booz Allen warned of slower reacceleration and lowered guidance, signaling contract pressure and secular risk.
OPEN
Bullish
Tokenization thesis could unlock new revenue streams if real-world assets move on-chain.
Bearish
Tokenization / real-estate speculation and large prior drawdowns create risk of further downside if adoption lags.
PLTR
Bullish
AI/government analytics exposure keeps PLTR in focus as a beneficiary of AI spending.
Bearish
Momentum/earnings-driven volatility around upcoming prints could lead to rapid price swings.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpJoe BidenJerome PowellTom LeeMark NewtonVlad TenevMike SantoliMark ZuckerbergAmitSteveTannerChrisJulianDougMattStanley DruckenmillerKevin HassettSundar PichaiElon Musk