Amit Kukreja
CPI THIS WEEK, TESLA & NFLX EARNINGS, CHINA NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE | MARKET FUTURES
10/20/2025, 1:48:59 AM
Economic Summary
- Semiconductor re-shoring: NVIDIA (NVDA) and TSMC (TSM) produced the Blackwell wafer in the U.S., accelerating onshoring and signaling large domestic AI infrastructure investment, potentially reshaping supply chains and geopolitics.
- Earnings and CPI focus: This week’s market will be driven by big-tech earnings (Tesla, Netflix, Palantir) and a single key macro print (CPI on Friday), making equities sensitive to both company guidance and inflation data.
- Leverage vulnerability: U.S. margin debt hit record highs (~$1.13 trillion) and leveraged ETFs are proliferating, increasing systemic risk if markets correct and trigger margin calls.
- Gold dynamics: Gold has surged as central banks accumulate reserves and Basel III elevated its reserve status, creating structural demand that could persist absent a global recession.
- China-US negotiations: Upcoming meetings between Trump and Xi (late Oct/early Nov) and related tariff discussions could materially affect trade, commodity flows (e.g., soybeans), and tech export controls impacting companies like NVDA.
Bullish
- NVIDIA and TSMC manufacturing advanced Blackwell AI chips in the U.S. supports onshoring and long-term AI infrastructure growth.
- Strong tech earnings cycle (Tesla, Netflix, Palantir) and consumer upgrades (iPhone 17) could sustain equity momentum.
- Central bank gold purchases and Basel III status provide structural demand support for gold and related assets.
- Duolingo (DUOL) has a genuine data moat in language learning that could drive outperformance in its niche.
Bearish
- High and growing margin debt and proliferation of leveraged ETFs could trigger forced selling on a pullback, amplifying downside.
- Export controls and China negotiation uncertainty could materially limit NVIDIA (NVDA) China revenue and near-term guidance.
- Rapid gold and commodity rallies risk forming a speculative bubble if central bank demand falters or a recession forces sales.
- Extremely high retail option activity (zero-DTE) and leverage increases market fragility and short-term volatility.
Bullish tickers
NVDATSMASMLPLTRDUOLAAPL
Bearish tickers
NVDAGLD
NVDA
1 price targets
184
Bullish
Leading AI chipmaker, now producing Blackwell wafers in the U.S.; central to AI infrastructure and long-term secular demand.
Bearish
China export controls and negotiation uncertainty could delay or curtail large China revenue, pressuring near-term guidance.
TSM
Bullish
TSMC is critical to AI supply chains, with large high-margin GPU revenue and increasing U.S. production.
Bearish
Capacity constraints and geopolitics could limit near-term revenue upside despite strong demand.
ASML
Bullish
Key equipment provider for advanced chipmaking benefiting from sustained AI-driven fab expansion.
Bearish
High valuations and cyclical capex patterns could lead to volatile results if fabs slow investment.
PLTR
2 price targets
178.92200
Bullish
Growth runway and margins (discussed as best-in-class) could justify continued multiple expansion if execution continues.
Bearish
Valuation is high versus current revenue scale; any miss or softer guidance could prompt sharp drawdown.
DUOL
Bullish
Has a strong data advantage and moat in language learning that could produce durable outperformance in its niche.
Bearish
Valuation and competitive threats in the broader AI/infrastructure rally limit conviction for a large position today.
AAPL
1 price targets
252
Bullish
iPhone 17 sales indicated a strong upgrade cycle, supporting revenue and attracting bullish positioning.
Bearish
iPhone upgrade cycles can be lumpy; multiple may compress if growth normalizes.
TSLA
1 price targets
444
Bullish
Improving FSD performance and product momentum leading into earnings could catalyze further gains.
Bearish
Highly sentiment-driven; substantial controversy and short-term volatility around product and leadership could weigh shares.
UBER
1 price targets
92.49
Bullish
Modest overnight gains reflect continued recovery in mobility and diversification benefits from delivery.
Bearish
Ride-hailing cyclicality and margin pressure in new initiatives could limit upside.
SOFI
1 price targets
27
Bullish
Retail interest and product expansion (banking beta) could be a tailwind into Q1 next year.
Bearish
Price spikes around low liquidity windows could make timing entries risky.
HOOD
1 price targets
132.67
Bullish
Retail engagement, options/prediction market activity, and pilot banking invites signal potential new revenue streams.
Bearish
Regulatory, competitive, and execution risks around new banking products could disappoint expectations.
GOOGL
1 price targets
253
Bullish
Stable ad franchise and continued AI investment support long-term growth prospects.
Bearish
Advertising cyclicality and regulatory scrutiny remain downside risks.
AMCR
Bullish
Mentioned as a U.S. packaging partner in AI supply chain, potentially benefiting from reshoring.
Bearish
Supply-chain winners can see volatile demand tied to cyclical capex.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpXi JinpingJensen HuangLuis Von AhnShyam SankarMark BenioffCactus JackStevePeterJoseStan DruckenmillerJoshChrisBill