Amit Kukreja
GOV SHUTDOWN FEARS, WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE MARKETS IN OCTOBER | MARKET OPEN
9/29/2025, 3:36:00 PM
Economic Summary
- September has been unusually strong; if the S&P holds current levels it could finish ~3.5%+ for the month, a rarity that follows August’s momentum and raises questions about potential October volatility.
- Key near-term macro events to watch: possible government shutdown (decision likely by Wednesday), Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (street ~50k), crypto rebounds, and product events from Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL) that could move their stocks.
- Macro data shows cooling inflation: PCE and PPI recently surprised to the downside and Blackstone notes wage growth has fallen below 3%, implying less urgency for Fed tightening and improving prospects for growth assets.
- Corporate activity and liquidity: S&P companies have executed record buybacks (~$1.1T in the past nine months) and global liquidity/M2 increases support asset price appreciation, benefiting equities, gold, and crypto.
Bullish
- Palantir's $410M State Department contract supports near-term revenue and pricing leverage.
- Robinhood product launches and multi-account support expand addressable market and distribution (prediction markets, banking).
- Sustained corporate buybacks (~$1.1T YTD) provide structural support for equities.
- Cooling inflation (PCE/PPI beats) plus falling wage growth reduces Fed tightening odds, easing financial conditions.
- Strong momentum in semiconductors and large-cap tech could lift broader indices if sustained.
- Cheap or beaten-up names in growth markets (e.g., GRAB) present attractive risk-reward for long-term holds.
Bearish
- Potential short government shutdown could briefly disrupt growth-sensitive sectors and create market volatility.
- New tariffs on furniture and patented pharmaceuticals could pressure companies reliant on overseas manufacturing (e.g., RH, Restoration Hardware).
- Sticky goods inflation from tariffs could keep consumer prices elevated despite cooling CPI/PCE trends.
- Robinhood Banking and new entrants may compress margins or market share for incumbents like SOFI.
- Semiconductor moves may be a fakeout—sharp, correlated moves could reverse and create outsized volatility.
- High gold and crypto flows alongside equities could signal reallocations away from stocks in a correction scenario.
Bullish tickers
PLTRHOODNVDAGRABAMZNGOOGL
Bearish tickers
SOFIRHUPSTCCL
PLTR
Bullish
Recently won a sizeable State Department contract ($410M for one year), supporting revenue and pricing power.
Bearish
Government or budget-driven cuts to defense/priorities could pressure future contract renewals.
HOOD
2 price targets
130131
Bullish
Multi-account rollout, prediction markets and sports betting expansion boost user monetization and index inclusion flows.
Bearish
New Robinhood Banking competition and analyst underweights could pressure sentiment for incumbents.
SOFI
1 price targets
18
Bullish
High growth and potential strong Q3 could lift shares; Morgan Stanley raised PT but stayed underweight.
Bearish
Competition from Robinhood Banking and mixed analyst views create execution risk for growth and margins.
CCL
2 price targets
32.2232.1
Bullish
Recent earnings beat and better EBITDA indicate resilience; lower rates would aid refinancing and margins.
Bearish
Large debt load makes the cruise sector rate-sensitive and vulnerable if rates stop falling.
NVDA
2 price targets
185184
Bullish
Continued semiconductor strength and upgrades keep NVDA as a market leadership candidate; a break above $184-$185 could fuel broader index moves.
Bearish
Heavy call positioning and concentrated resistance levels risk short-term pullbacks if momentum stalls.
GRAB
2 price targets
6.0212
Bullish
Growing revenues, large addressable Southeast Asian market, and attractive risk-reward versus current valuation.
Bearish
Near-term execution risk and volatility; consumer/regional headwinds could push price lower.
TSLA
2 price targets
450445
Bullish
Deliveries and EV momentum could reaccelerate upside if operational beats appear.
Bearish
Resistance around $450 and mixed delivery expectations create short-term headwinds.
AMD
1 price targets
163
Bullish
Strong YTD performance and sector tailwinds support further gains if demand remains intact.
Bearish
Semiconductor cyclicality could lead to sharp pullbacks in a volatile environment.
APP
1 price targets
715
Bullish
Solid momentum and upgrades contributing to share strength.
Bearish
High valuation can lead to outsized moves on any user or revenue disappointment.
UPST
Bullish
If credit environment stabilizes, lending growth could recover and re-rate the stock.
Bearish
Correlation with fintech peers (SOFI) and short-term downside on analyst scrutiny.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpJared KushnerJohn GrayDave McCormickBenjamin NetanyahuChuck SchumerVladimir PutinNancy PelosiTom LeeStephen CohenAmit