Amit Kukreja
NETFLIX KICKS OFF BIG TECH EARNINGS, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
10/21/2025, 10:13:41 PM
Economic Summary
- Netflix (NFLX) delivered revenue roughly in line but missed EPS materially; management blamed a one-time expense from a dispute with Brazilian tax authorities, and Q4 operating margin guidance was lowered, which led to a multi-billion dollar market-cap hit.
- Macro/market breadth remains strong: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are trading near record highs (Dow flirting with 47,000), indicating broad risk-on positioning despite uneven performance in momentum names.
- Commodities saw a sharp pullback—gold experienced its worst day since April 2013 and silver plunged—suggesting either profit-taking by central banks/large holders or an overcrowded trade reversing.
- Several speculative and high-short-float names (crypto miners, nuclear/momentum stocks) sold off sharply this week, implying rotation away from frothier areas toward larger-cap or fundamentals-driven names.
Bullish
- S&P and Dow near all-time highs, signaling broad market strength.
- NVIDIA consolidation suggests accumulation ahead of AI-related earnings catalysts.
- Intuitive Surgical beat and guided growth, showing strength in medical/robotics names.
- Amazon recovered after a major outage and remains a defensive tech play.
Bearish
- Netflix missed EPS due to an unexpected Brazilian tax expense, pressuring the stock.
- Many high-momentum names are losing momentum and seeing large weekly drawdowns.
- Commodities plunging (gold, silver) signals a partial unwind of risk-on commodity bets.
- Highly shorted names and meme squeezes (Beyond Meat) could reverse violently once squeeze fades.
Bullish tickers
NVDAAMZNISRGGLXYGOOGL
Bearish tickers
NFLXBYNDASTSMARARIOT
NFLX
2 price targets
1151120
Bullish
Engagement remains healthy and revenue grew year-over-year; one-time items may be transitory.
Bearish
Missed EPS significantly due to a Brazilian tax-charge-driven margin hit; guidance and margin compression raise concerns.
NVDA
3 price targets
181177190
Bullish
Pre-earnings consolidation looks like accumulation ahead of AI/GPU demand commentary.
Bearish
Depends on data-center spend; if major customers don’t raise guidance, upside could be limited.
TSLA
3 price targets
450415390
Bullish
Near-term support and monthly delivery disclosures reduce the probability of big earnings shocks.
Bearish
Chart shows a consolidation box; a break below 415 could trigger large retracements.
AMZN
3 price targets
223210240
Bullish
Recovered quickly from outage; seen as a safer large-cap trade during rotation.
Bearish
Outages raise operational concerns but didn’t derail the stock; earnings remain the event risk.
GOOGL
2 price targets
252244
Bullish
Monopoly position in browsers and capacity to add AI features reduces material competitive threat.
Bearish
OpenAI browser news briefly dented market cap, but lack of distribution limits near-term disruption.
BYND
2 price targets
3.724.17
Bullish
Short-covering and a Walmart partnership powered a massive short squeeze rally.
Bearish
Extreme intraday squeeze on heavy short interest; fundamentals (gross margin) remain questionable.
ISRG
1 price targets
520
Bullish
Reported strong results and beat expectations, driving after-hours strength.
Bearish
Not highlighted as weak in the call; bear case is general valuation risk for high-growth med-tech.
COF
Bullish
Posted solid beats in EPS and revenue, showing consumer finance strength.
Bearish
Sector/credit sensitivity could be a risk, though not flagged in this transcript.
MAT
Bullish
Company reiterated full-year guidance and expects a strong holiday season.
Bearish
Experienced large after-hours volatility; market initially punished results before partial recovery.
ASTS
Bullish
Repurchase could reduce future dilution if executed as planned.
Bearish
After-hours repurchase of convertible notes and earlier run-up led to sharp post-announcement selling.
HOOD
Bullish
Pre-earnings run-ups and retail interest can still provide short-term upside opportunities.
Bearish
Pulled back after parabolic moves; prior run-up looked overheated without clear catalyst.
PLTR
Bullish
If it holds technical levels, could maintain momentum amid tech leadership.
Bearish
Mentioned as a momentum name that must hold key levels or risk rotation away.
People mentioned
Julia BoorstinMark MahaneyElon MuskDonald TrumpJasonAmitDanNateDougieSkreliJohn