Amit Kukreja
NVIDIA HITS ALL TIME HIGHS, 3 YEAR BULL MARKET ANNIVERSARY, GOV STILL SHUTDOWN | MARKET OPEN
10/10/2025, 4:40:00 PM
Economic Summary
- Fed easing expected to continue: market pricing implies a high probability of rate cuts later in the year (market commentary cited October cuts and further easing into 2025–2027), which supports multiple expansion and risk asset flows.
- Retail flows are very strong — roughly $105 billion of retail equity buying in the last month and roughly $630 billion year-to-date — creating persistent bid for high-beta and thematic names.
- Earnings momentum remains a core bull-market driver: several non-tech names (Delta, Pepsi) and AI‑infrastructure plays (APLD) reported upside, supporting the case for continued gains even amid macro/friction.
- Government shutdown produced data fog (missing official releases) but CPI is scheduled for October 24; lack of clarity increases short-term volatility and puts emphasis on upcoming earnings for stock direction.
- Geopolitical / trade risk rose sharply after China export-control actions and subsequent US political rhetoric; rare-earth and semiconductor supply-chain friction poses downside risk to tech, industrials, and some global supply chains.
Bullish
- Nvidia (NVDA) seeing sustained AI-driven capex demand with large deployments (Microsoft cluster), supporting higher earnings.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) momentum after multiple launch contracts with Japan, fueling retail enthusiasm despite valuation questions.
- Applied Digital (APLD) beat EPS and revenue estimates, showing data center demand that can re-rate smaller AI infrastructure names.
- Amcor (AMCR) positioned as a US OSAT beneficiary of semiconductor onshoring with TSMC/Apple proximity and capacity expansion plans.
- SMCI benefiting from server/rack demand and liquid cooling tailwinds tied to GPU deployments.
Bearish
- Legal overhang for Venture Global after arbitration loss to BP, driving a steep premarket selloff.
- Geopolitical escalation — Trump’s tariff threats and China export controls on rare earths — could disrupt supply chains and trigger market volatility.
- Crypto weakness (Ethereum dip) risks pressuring related miners and leveraged crypto equities (e.g., BMR/bitcoin-miner plays).
Bullish tickers
NVDARKLBAPLDAMCRSMCI
Bearish tickers
VENTURE GLOBALBMR
NVDA
2 price targets
300240
Bullish
Dominant AI accelerator share, major cloud deployments (Microsoft) and sizable AI capex support significantly higher earnings.
Bearish
Geopolitical/export‑control risk (China probes/limits) and any slowdown in AI capex could compress multiples.
RKLB
Bullish
Signed dedicated launches with Japan (JAXA) and consistent contract flow underpin momentum and retail interest.
Bearish
High valuation and momentum-driven move; revenue/earnings impact of a few launches is limited near term.
APLD
Bullish
Crushed earnings with strong revenue beat and direct exposure to AI/data center buildouts driving rerating momentum.
Bearish
Smaller‑cap volatility and lofty expectations could lead to sharp pullbacks on any operational hiccups.
AMCR
1 price targets
26
Bullish
Leading US OSAT with TSMC/Apple proximity, large Arizona expansion, and onshoring tailwinds that could double revenues.
Bearish
Currently modest gross margins and the stock needs sustained revenue execution to justify rerating.
SMCI
Bullish
Server and liquid‑cooling exposure positions SMCI to benefit from accelerated GPU/server deployments.
Bearish
Execution and execution‑scale risk; options spreads and elevated expectations introduce downside if demand normalizes.
VENTURE GLOBAL
Bearish
Lost arbitration to BP with potential uncapped damages and prolonged legal/financial overhang, pressure on shares.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpJensen HuangSatya NadellaTom LeeMark MahaneyJeff MoonHoward LutnickTim CookSuchinSamChrisMattJasonMike NoratGabrielle SantosJun Haye