Amit Kukreja
Our Raw Reaction To Palantir's Incredible Q3 Earnings
11/4/2025, 1:17:12 AM
Economic Summary
- Palantir (PLTR) reported broad acceleration across segments in Q3 2025, nearing multi-billion revenue targets and showing outsized growth from top clients (top 20 customers now ~43% of revenues, growing ~38% YoY), implying strong value capture but concentrated exposure.
- Management emphasized AIFDs and the new AI Hivemind product that claim to compress legacy data transformations from years to days, which could materially increase deployment velocity, customer interactions, margins, and the firm’s ability to charge value-linked fees.
- The call highlighted significant runway: only 911 customers have been onboarded versus thousands who could benefit, suggesting continued customer-add and expansion opportunities if conversion rates and new product rollouts sustain.
- Competitive context: hosts argued incumbents like Snowflake (SNOW) and Databricks (DATABRICKS) appear to be stalling, potentially shifting enterprise demand toward value-focused AI solutions, while GPU partnerships (NVDA) may accelerate product performance and adoption.
Bullish
- AIFDs and AI Hivemind can cut multi-year projects to days, boosting throughput
- Revenue accelerating across segments with top customers growing ~38% YoY
- Large addressable customer base (911 customers so far) implies runway
- Partnerships around GPUs (e.g., NVDA) may enhance product capabilities and demand
Bearish
- Top-20 customers account for 43% of revenue, creating concentration risk
- High growth could normalize if AIFD rollouts or pilot conversions underdeliver
- Competitors like Snowflake and Databricks may pressure win rates or pricing
Bullish tickers
PLTRNVDA
Bearish tickers
PLTRSNOWDATABRICKS
PLTR
Bullish
AIFDs and AI Hivemind can compress years of work into days, driving faster deployments, higher margins, and strong revenue acceleration.
Bearish
High revenue concentration in top customers and risk that AIFD/AIHivemind deployments underdeliver versus expectations.
NVDA
Bullish
Partnerships and GPU ecosystem synergy could boost product capabilities and deal momentum for AI-enabled solutions.
SNOW
Bearish
Perceived growth stalling compared with Palantir, suggesting execution or product-market headwinds.
DATABRICKS
Bearish
Call participants suggested Databricks is starting to stall relative to Palantir's momentum.
People mentioned
Alex KarpAmirArnieMattBrent SteeleShyam Sankar