Amit Kukreja
Palantir Gets A $200 UPGRADE, Powell Goes SUPER BULLISH, Trump CHINA Tensions Continue | Daily Recap
10/15/2025, 12:06:01 AM
Economic Summary
- U.S.-China negotiations and remarks from trade representatives eased fears of escalation over rare-earth export controls, prompting a sharp market reversal and suggesting improved trade clarity ahead of Trump–Xi talks.
- Fed signals (via Jerome Powell) indicate the central bank is nearing an end to quantitative tightening and may pause balance-sheet runoff, which markets interpret as liquidity-supportive and potentially bullish for asset prices.
- Labor market weakness was highlighted by the Fed commentary, implying a greater likelihood of future rate cuts to cushion employment, while growth data before the government shutdown suggested activity roughly matched September levels.
- Massive planned investment into data centers (estimates cited ~ $1.5 trillion core/shell need) driven by cloud and AI demand positions financial institutions and infrastructure providers for long-term capital deployment.
- Investor behavior shows significant risk-taking: record one-day U.S. options volume (108 million contracts) and large inflows into leveraged NVDA products, while $7.5 trillion on the sidelines earning money-market yields could rotate into risk assets if rates fall.
Bullish
- U.S.-China de-escalation talks and clarity can fuel a market rally.
- Fed likely to stop quantitative tightening, supporting asset prices.
- Large planned capital into data centers drives demand for cloud and AI infrastructure.
- Retail and institutional buy-the-dip behavior (record option volumes) supports market resilience.
- Palantir has visible government contracts and accelerating commercial bookings supporting growth.
Bearish
- China's rare-earth export controls could escalate and disrupt supply chains, pressuring tech and defense firms.
- Palantir's valuation leaves little margin for error if growth moderates.
- Market froth and record options volume increase volatility and downside risk.
- Government shutdown risk (possible through Nov 16) could interrupt data flow and hurt economic visibility.
- AI could commoditize jobs, pressuring labor markets and growth over time.
Bullish tickers
NVDAPLTRBLKJPMMETAHOODSMCI
Bearish tickers
PLTRNVDA
PLTR
2 price targets
201182
Bullish
Large visible government contracts, accelerating commercial bookings, and sizeable defense wallet-share opportunity support continued growth.
Bearish
Valuation is aggressive with little margin for error if growth moderates; sensitive to execution risk.
NVDA
Bullish
Core AI/compute demand and heavy retail/institutional buying (including leveraged funds) underpin strong investor interest.
Bearish
Experienced a sharp intraday drop and is susceptible to export control or macro-driven volatility.
BLK
Bullish
BlackRock signals strong focus on data centers and tokenization, benefiting from infrastructure financing demand.
Bearish
Exposed to macro and capital-allocation risks if data center financing dynamics change.
JPM
Bullish
Announced major initiative including energy and data-center financing, positioning it to profit from infrastructure investment.
Bearish
Bank exposure to macro shocks and trade tensions could pressure results.
META
Bullish
One of the most bought stocks during dip, showing retail/institutional conviction.
Bearish
Ad and growth cycles could be impacted by macro volatility.
HOOD
Bullish
Broker-dealer platforms benefit from elevated trading and options volumes.
Bearish
Retail flow sensitivity could amplify volatility and revenue swings.
SMCI
Bullish
The speaker added long-dated call exposure, reflecting conviction in its upside tied to infrastructure demand.
Bearish
Leverage on AI/data center cycles could magnify downside during broader drawdowns.
NVDU
Bullish
Received large inflows during the dip, indicating strong speculative demand for leveraged NVDA exposure.
Bearish
Leveraged product inflows can reverse rapidly and exacerbate downside.
WEBULL
Bullish
High options and trading volumes are beneficial to retail brokerages like Webull.
Bearish
Platform revenues tied to trading volatility, which can be episodic.
FIDELITY
Bullish
Benefits from increased market activity and investor asset allocation into varied instruments.
Bearish
Large asset managers face market-cycle exposure on client flows.
People mentioned
Jameson GreerWits KaposentDonald TrumpXi JinpingJerome PowellLarry FinkPaul Tudor JonesPalmer LuckeyJ D VanceBessantKalshe