Amit Kukreja
PALANTIR TAKES A DIP, BITCOIN TRIES FOR ALL TIME HIGHS, SAM JOINS TO DISCUSS RUBRIK | MARKET CLOSE
10/4/2025, 12:16:54 AM
Economic Summary
- A large crypto liquidation (a whale) shortly before new Bitcoin highs produced a massive red candle that spilled into equities intraday, contributing to broad, unexplained selling pressure and volatility across tickers like HOOD, AMD, and NVDA.
- Options flows, expiring contracts, and elevated intraday volumes concentrated in a few names (TSLA, NVDA, PLTR, OPEN) amplified moves; the VIX rose to ~16 even as the S&P made new highs, indicating hedging and positioning risks.
- Jeff Bezos framed AI as both real and prone to industrial-style bubbles: while funding indiscriminately flows to many AI startups, the technology is horizontal and will boost productivity across industries, implying long-term structural benefits for cloud and data center plays (e.g., AMZN, NVDA).
- Money-market and cash dynamics remain important: large pools of cash/money-market balances create latent buying power that could rotate into equities, while end-of-year IT budgeting cycles may drive cloud spend and support AWS and related infrastructure vendors.
- Geopolitical developments (a Hamas statement agreeing to conditional hostage release under a Trump proposal) and the ongoing risk of a US government shutdown are near-term macro variables that could either reduce geopolitical risk premia or, if unresolved, stress markets.
Bullish
- Robinhood breakout above $150 demonstrates retail momentum and sticky product adoption.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) hitting all-time highs, showing strong execution in its niche.
- Palantir’s Army Vantage extension (~$619M) supports durable government revenue runway.
- NVIDIA-driven data center demand is lifting semis and infrastructure beneficiaries (NVDA theme).
- Amazon (AMZN) AWS reacceleration and year-end IT budget flush could re-ignite growth.
Bearish
- Reuters piece on Palantir spooked investors, creating outsized downside despite mitigation claims.
- Crypto whale liquidation can cascade into equities, causing sudden intraday sell-offs.
- DraftKings and gambling stocks face headwinds from new tax rules creating 'phantom' taxable gains.
- High options activity and rising hedging (VIX) imply underlying market fragility despite highs.
Bullish tickers
HOODRKLBPLTRNVDAAMZN
Bearish tickers
PLTRSOFIDKNG
HOOD
2 price targets
150.21149
Bullish
Cleared $150 intraday showing retail engagement and strong momentum on new product verticals.
Bearish
Pulled back after crypto-linked market drop; intraday volatility could re-test breakout levels.
PLTR
2 price targets
171.37170.9
Bullish
Army Vantage memo and $619M contract extension point to durable government revenue and strategic importance.
Bearish
Negative Reuters article drove an outsized sell-off despite Army CIO saying issues were mitigated.
NVDA
Bullish
Data-center and AI demand continue to underpin semiconductors and infrastructure beneficiaries.
Bearish
Gave up gains during the crypto-driven sell-off; high expectations price in much of the growth.
AMZN
1 price targets
222
Bullish
Year-end IT budget flush and anticipated AWS reacceleration could drive upside to the name.
Bearish
Decelerating AWS growth (from ~19-20% to ~17%) tempers enthusiasm in the near term.
RKLB
1 price targets
56
Bullish
Rocket Lab hitting all-time highs, strong momentum in its niche market.
Bearish
Small-cap moves can be volatile; valuation sensitivity to execution risk.
SOFI
Bullish
Retail fintech exposure could benefit from broader retail trading activity.
Bearish
Unclear drivers; name was down intraday (~3.2%), indicating idiosyncratic weakness.
DKNG
Bullish
Regulatory barriers to international competitors could consolidate domestic market share if favorable.
Bearish
Potentially impaired by new tax rules that create 'phantom' taxable gains for bettors.
AMD
2 price targets
172164
Bullish
Longer-term secular demand from data center and AI compute supports the thesis.
Bearish
Sustained intraday weakness during the sell-off shows sensitivity to risk-off moves.
UNH
1 price targets
360
Bullish
Strong operational performance and defensive profile alongside industry-specific initiatives supporting members.
Bearish
Pulled back intraday from highs; healthcare policy and episodic criticism can pressure sentiment.
People mentioned
SamJeff BezosDonald TrumpAmitSteveChrisAlex KarpCaroline LevittBenjamin GrahamMeera MaradiPam BondiMike NovogratzLogan PaulJosh FreemanJuanTannerMattRichardKrishnaEnzoCharlie