Amit Kukreja
Robinhood Hits All Time Highs | Tech Bros
9/30/2025, 2:58:46 AM
Economic Summary
- Robinhood (HOOD) saw a sharp price surge driven by institutional buying and its S&P inclusion, signaling broad investor validation but increasing volatility and short-term pullback risk as many investors take profits.
- Based on September trading volumes and assumed take rates, hosts estimate Robinhood could report ~ $1.2B revenue for Q3, with a breakdown near $753M transaction revenue and $372M net interest revenue, implying an analyst-beating quarter if realized.
- Bitstamp—acquired for about $200M—is already contributing nontrivial crypto volumes (~$12–14B monthly estimated), highlighting how accretive small, strategic M&A has been to HOOD's crypto revenue mix.
- Prediction markets (Calci/Kalshi integrations) represent a fast-growing new revenue stream and a large TAM opportunity international rollout and favorable regulation permitting, though regulatory uncertainty and state-by-state restrictions remain material constraints.
Bullish
- Institutional buying and S&P inclusion materially lifted HOOD's price, validating product traction.
- Bitstamp acquisition is already contributing meaningful crypto volume and revenue for Robinhood.
- Prediction markets and banking products create significant TAM expansion for Robinhood (HOOD).
- Shopify (SHOP) viewed as long-term free cash flow compounder with strong management.
Bearish
- Robinhood (HOOD) may face a short-term pullback because Q4 comps are very tough versus last year's huge quarter.
- Prediction markets face regulatory and rollout risks that could limit near-term revenue expansion.
- Levered crypto plays like BMNR carry higher downside and execution/treasury risks versus holding ETH directly.
- Acquisitions at high prices (e.g., hypothetical large Kalshi buyout) would be dilutive and crash sentiment.
Bullish tickers
HOODAPPSHOPBMNRNVDAPLTR
Bearish tickers
HOODBMNRMSTRTTD
HOOD
1 price targets
450
Bullish
Institutional buying, S&P inclusion, Bitstamp contribution, and scaling prediction markets/banking could drive multi-year growth.
Bearish
Valuation extended; near-term pullback risk given difficult Q4 comps and regulatory/rollout uncertainties for prediction markets.
APP
Bullish
Strong post-earnings move and rapid share gains; hosts cited ~97% upside since their purchase after earnings.
SHOP
Bullish
Viewed as an OS for commerce and long-term free cash flow compounder; strong CEO confidence.
BMNR
Bullish
Provides leveraged upside to Ethereum and could outperform ETH if ETH rallies and staking/treasury yields are realized.
Bearish
Levered exposure to ETH increases downside risk versus holding ETH; treasury/execution risk if markets stall.
NVDA
Bullish
Cited as a high-performer in portfolio (up ~40–45% since their entry), representing continued momentum exposure.
PLTR
Bullish
Mentioned as an early successful call by the hosts; example of early-stage asymmetric returns.
TTD
Bearish
Hosts noted concerns and reduced conviction, preferring reallocation into higher-conviction names.
COIN
Bullish
Referenced in context of crypto revenue comparisons and exchange dynamics relative to Robinhood's crypto business.
PYPL
Bearish
Unlikely to be a cheap acquisition target at large prices; hosts argued a $5B buyout would be unrealistic.
MSTR
Bearish
Has notable debt and leverage; performance can lag despite Bitcoin exposure when balance-sheet risks rise.
People mentioned
RoyTannerAmitVlad TenevSteveTobi LütkeTom LeeMichael SaylorPaper Gains