Amit Kukreja
ROBINHOOD Q3 2025 EARNINGS
11/5/2025, 4:54:55 PM
Economic Summary
- Several consumer-facing companies (DoorDash - DASH, e.l.f. - ELF, Chipotle - CMG) missed EPS, suggesting weakening consumer demand and pressure on discretionary spending.
- Restaurant operators face a shift to deep discount-seeking behavior—management commentary likened current consumer discounting to the Great Recession, which implies margin and traffic risk for dining concepts (e.g., CAVA).
- Fintech Chime reports improving unit economics: adjusted EBITDA margin at 8% with a target toward 35%, improving loss rates on a small credit product, and rising transaction spend, but remains cyclically exposed if a recession occurs.
Bullish
- Chime showing improving economics: higher transaction margins and better credit loss trends.
- Chime aiming to expand adjusted EBITDA margin from 8% toward 35%.
Bearish
- Multiple consumer-facing names missed EPS, signaling consumer weakness in discretionary spending.
- Restaurants facing deep discount-seeking consumers, likened to behavior during the Great Recession.
- Chime is cyclical and could deteriorate sharply in a recession despite current improvements.
Bullish tickers
CHIME
Bearish tickers
DASHELFCMGCAVACHIME
DASH
Bearish
Missed EPS; example of consumer weakness hitting delivery/discretionary demand.
ELF
Bearish
Missed EPS; part of the broader consumer discretionary softness theme.
CMG
Bearish
Missed EPS; signals weaker spending at restaurants and higher sensitivity to discount-seeking consumers.
CAVA
Bearish
Management noted unusually deep discount-seeking consumer behavior, negative for restaurant margins and traffic.
CHIME
1 price targets
16
Bullish
Highest adjusted EBITDA margin seen at 8%, improving credit loss rates, rising transaction margins, targeting 35%.
Bearish
Highly cyclical business that could be hit hard in a recession despite current margin improvements.