Amit Kukreja
Robinhood Q3 2025 Earnings This Week | Tech Bros
11/3/2025, 10:19:56 PM
Economic Summary
- Prediction-market trading volumes have surged: examples cited include 20–25M contracts on a Robinhood slide, Kalshi reporting ~60M overall, and a single Kalshi contract hitting nearly 88M, implying rapidly growing liquidity and user engagement in event-based markets (companies: HOOD, KALSHI).
- If Robinhood (HOOD) is responsible for roughly a third of Kalshi's volume on major sports contracts, that suggests a meaningful new revenue and engagement channel that could scale across multiple sports and event types.
- However, volume attribution is uncertain; confirming whether visible volumes are Robinhood's is crucial because ambiguity materially affects the growth thesis for HOOD and the competitive dynamics with Kalshi (KALSHI).
Bullish
- Prediction-market volumes could ramp quickly, creating large transactional growth opportunities for platforms.
- Single-contract spikes (up to ~88M on Kalshi) show strong demand across sports markets.
- Robinhood appearing to handle roughly one-third of visible volume implies rapid share gains if confirmed.
Bearish
- Unclear whether the observed volume is actually Robinhood's — data clarity lacking.
- Kalshi may capture the bulk of prediction-market volume, limiting Robinhood's share.
- If Robinhood isn't producing the volume, the fast-growth thesis for HOOD weakens.
Bullish tickers
HOODKALSHI
Bearish tickers
HOODKALSHI
HOOD
Bullish
If Robinhood is capturing roughly one-third of major Kalshi contract volumes, HOOD could realize rapid transaction and engagement growth from prediction-market products.
Bearish
Volume attribution is unclear; if Robinhood didn't produce the observed activity, the expected growth from prediction markets may not materialize.
KALSHI
Bullish
Kalshi reported extremely high contract volumes (nearly 88M for one contract), showing substantial demand for event-driven prediction markets.
Bearish
Kalshi may be the dominant venue for these contracts, limiting third-party platforms' ability to extract volume and revenue.
People mentioned
Amit