Amit Kukreja
SOFI, PAYPAL, UNH EARNINGS | MARKET OPEN
10/28/2025, 3:14:10 AM
Economic Summary
- The company revised 2025 guidance upward, now expecting to add approximately 3.5 million members, about 34% year-over-year growth versus prior guidance of 3 million (30%).
- Adjusted net revenue guidance increased to approximately $3.54 billion for 2025, implying ~36% year-over-year growth, up from prior guidance of $3.375 billion and ~30% growth.
- Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to about $1.035 billion, representing a ~29% margin and above the prior $960 million guidance, indicating improved operating profitability.
- Adjusted net income guidance increased to approximately $455 million with adjusted EPS of about $0.37 (prior $370 million and $0.31), and fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of roughly $0.12 assuming a Q4 tax rate of 10%.
- The company now expects tangible book value growth of roughly $2.5 billion for the year, a substantial increase from prior guidance of around $640 million.
Bullish
- Company raised full-year 2025 guidance: now expects ~3.5M new members (34% YoY).
- Raised revenue targets to ~$3.54B and adjusted EBITDA to ~$1.035B, signaling stronger profitability.
- Raised adjusted net income and EPS guidance (now ~$455M and $0.37), and projects large tangible book value growth (~$2.5B).
Bearish
- Q4 adjusted EPS depends on an assumed 10% tax rate, which could change outcomes.
- Upward guidance hinges on continued membership additions; slower retention or lower quality members would hurt results.