Amit Kukreja
SOYBEANS TRY TO MESS UP THE FUN, POWELL GOES DOVISH, EARNINGS CONTINUE STRONG | MARKET OPEN
10/15/2025, 3:22:34 PM
Economic Summary
- Trade-policy uncertainty (tariffs, China tensions, soybean disputes) is a key driver of stock volatility and re-pricing, raising idiosyncratic risks for supply-chain and resource names.
- An AI-driven supercycle is driving heavy CapEx into data centers and compute, benefitting semiconductor and equipment makers such as NVDA, AMD, ASML, and TSMC with sustained demand implications.
- Fed policy is turning more dovish — market participants expect cuts and less aggressive quantitative tightening, which provides a favorable backdrop for equities and risk assets.
- New leveraged ETF products (5x single-stock ETFs) increase market fragility by enabling easy, concentrated leverage on individual names, amplifying both rallies and crashes.
- Commodities and safe-haven flows (gold, silver) are rising amid macro and policy uncertainty, reflecting investor hedging away from cash.
Bullish
- AI-driven capex supports semiconductor demand (NVDA, AMD).
- Rate cuts / dovish Fed backdrop is supportive for risk assets.
- Data center and robotics spend fuels long-term growth for chip suppliers.
- High-quality mega-caps trading cheap (Amazon, Apple) offer lower-risk exposure.
Bearish
- Speculative narrative names (e.g., Oklo) can get wiped out, high downside risk.
- Levered single-stock ETFs (5x) amplify losses and systemic volatility.
- Geopolitical escalation (soybeans/China, rare earth export controls) can pressure markets.
- Rare earths and other thematic names showing sharp profit-taking and double-digit drops.
Bullish tickers
NVDAAMDASMLTSMAMZNAAPL
Bearish tickers
OKLOCRMLTMQUSAR
NVDA
3 price targets
320300200
Bullish
AI-driven top-line growth over 50% and dominant position in data-center compute justify premium and recent upgrades.
Bearish
High volatility with multiple 25% drawdowns this year; valuation swings create risk despite strong fundamentals.
AMD
2 price targets
310280
Bullish
Recent price target upgrades and large Oracle GPU deal signal renewed data-center momentum and competitive push.
Bearish
Earlier missed the initial AI wave and must ‘bet the farm’ to catch up, creating execution risk.
OKLO
Bullish
Narrative tailwind from Army JANUS program and DOE ties supporting pre-market momentum.
Bearish
Speculative nuclear narrative with unclear revenue path; vulnerable to narrative-driven reversals.
AMZN
Bullish
Trading at historically low EV/forward-earnings multiples and highly diversified, making it attractive for safer exposure.
Bearish
Regulatory/DOJ narratives and slower short-term re-rating risk limit near-term upside.
AAPL
Bullish
New M5 chips for iPad/Mac and Vision Pro updates sustain product cycle and incremental revenue opportunities.
Bearish
Vision Pro adoption appears limited; some product updates face uncertain consumer traction.
ASML
Bullish
Strong orders, buybacks, and EUV tool demand underpin semiconductor equipment cycle and signal capex continuation.
Bearish
Management commentary was cautious and China sales may normalize lower next year.
TSM
Bullish
TSMC is a key read into next-year fab spending; ASML strength suggests continued AI-driven capex tailwinds.
Bearish
Exposure to cyclical capex and potential China-related normalization may create near-term headwinds.
APLD
Bullish
Large CoreWeave deal and strong earnings give the stock a meaningful near-term catalyst.
Bearish
Momentum-driven moves can reverse if CoreWeave or data-center deals disappoint.
RKLB
Bullish
Breaking toward all-time highs on continued operational progress and market enthusiasm.
Bearish
Aerospace/space names remain sentiment-driven with volatile upside and downside.
ASTS
Bullish
Near $100 breakout and continued strength on space sector interest.
Bearish
Space-related rally risks profit-taking despite strong momentum.
BBAI
Bullish
Strong recent move reflects renewed investor interest in AI software plays.
Bearish
Speculative AI-adjacent names may see rapid reversals.
SMCI
Bullish
Benefiting from enterprise/data-center spending and solid earnings momentum.
Bearish
Hardware integrator exposure is cyclical and sentiment sensitive.
ORCL
Bullish
Large enterprise deals can drive sudden valuation re-rating and market share gains.
Bearish
Big earnings re-rates can be puzzling and may be priced for execution risk.
People mentioned
BeckyBrad GerstnerDonald TrumpLisa SuJensen HuangSam AltmanGreg BrockmanElon MuskPaul Tudor JonesMichelle BowmanChristopher WallerJamie DimonEric JacksonStanley DruckenmillerJerome Powell