Amit Kukreja
TESLA EARNINGS, TRUMP MAY INVEST IN QUANTUM, CHINA NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE | MARKET OPEN
10/23/2025, 11:46:46 AM
Economic Summary
- CPI due tomorrow; market activity is highly contingent on headline CPI and expectations, influencing rate-cut odds and equity positioning.
- Corporate buyback authorizations reached a record $1.15 trillion year‑over‑year, with analysts forecasting a potential $100B+ of buybacks in November supporting equities.
- U.S.-China tensions over rare-earth export controls and retaliatory tariffs remain elevated; trade and export-control narratives are driving sector rotations in semiconductors and materials.
- Many companies continue to beat earnings: ~85% of S&P reporters have topped estimates, setting up a critical big-tech earnings week that could determine market direction.
- JPMorgan and others expect the Fed to end quantitative tightening soon; market participants are watching for easing signals that could spark risk-on moves.
Bullish
- Amazon's AI 'Help Me Decide' and massive order flow drive margin expansion potential (AMZN).
- Palantir-Lumen $200M partnership could accelerate commercial AI go-to-market (PLTR).
- Record corporate buyback authorizations ($1.15T) may provide significant market support.
- 85% of S&P 500 reporters have beaten estimates, supporting risk assets into big-tech week.
- Quantum stocks spiked on reports of potential government support (IONQ, D-WAVE, RIGETTI).
Bearish
- Rumors of government equity stakes in small quantum firms look like potential political pumping or a grift.
- Tesla missed EPS and guidance ambiguity makes 2026 growth uncertain, risking near-term downside (TSLA).
- SMCI missed near-term revenue estimates, sparking a sharp selloff and guidance concerns.
- IBM consulting revenue weakness pressures a key legacy tech name and signals enterprise spending softness.
- Beyond Meat faces extreme short interest, adding downside risk to shares (BYND).
Bullish tickers
AMZNPLTRIONQNVDASOFI
Bearish tickers
TSLASMCIIBMBYNDD-WAVE
TSLA
3 price targets
270300350
Bullish
Long-term FSD miles growth and robotics/AI narrative provide multiyear upside if execution returns.
Bearish
Missed EPS and unclear 2026 growth outlook; market pricing suggests investors expect later recovery.
AMZN
2 price targets
220218
Bullish
New AI features, massive order volume (~536k orders/hour) and $4B+ potential savings from automation support margins.
Bearish
Needs strong margins and execution to re‑rate; high expectations baked into AI initiatives.
PLTR
1 price targets
172.38
Bullish
Secured $200M multi-year strategic deal with Lumen, boosting commercial growth prospects.
Bearish
Commercial execution must scale to justify valuation; depends on durable enterprise adoption.
IONQ
Bullish
Rumors of government equity support lifted shares pre-market; potential strategic backing could legitimize funding.
Bearish
Quantum sector volatility and questions about meaningful national-security rationale increase execution risk.
D-WAVE
Bullish
Reportedly included in talks of possible government investment, driving speculative interest.
Bearish
Small quantum firms are highly volatile and remain deeply depressed after recent selloff.
RIGETTI
Bullish
Mentioned among firms in rumored government discussions, prompting short-term rallies.
Bearish
Speculative quantum exposure with weak near-term earnings catalysts and high downside volatility.
SMCI
1 price targets
49.46
Bullish
Company cites strong demand and reiterates FY target; supply timing issues may explain miss.
Bearish
Preliminary update missed revenue expectations (Q1 shifted), triggering a sharp share decline.
NVDA
Bullish
Continued GPU demand from AI, data centers and potential new verticals (humanoid robotics) underpin growth.
Bearish
High expectations already priced in; any slower-than-expected demand (e.g., for humanoid robotics) could disappoint.
IBM
Bullish
Legacy tech pivot to cloud/AI could stabilize long term if execution improves.
Bearish
Consulting revenue weakness hit the stock hard, signaling enterprise spending pressure.
BYND
Bullish
None highlighted in transcript; recovery would require turnaround in demand or fundamentals.
Bearish
Extraordinarily high short interest (>100% of free float) increases downside and volatility risk.
SOFI
Bullish
Strong app/download trends and potential benefit from rate cuts and cost tailwinds could boost results.
Bearish
Sensitivity to rate moves; earnings and rate-cut timing create event risk around reports.
LUMN
Bullish
Strategic $200M Palantir partnership positions Lumen as AI infrastructure mover for enterprises.
Bearish
Partnership execution risk and integration may delay expected benefits.
ORCL
Bullish
Partnerships with AI leaders helped lift sector market caps by large amounts recently.
Bearish
Stock may be priced for partnerships; execution needed to sustain gains.
OPEN
Bullish
Insider/board member purchases show conviction after declines.
Bearish
Needs sustained execution; activist buys are not a substitute for solid results.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpXi JinpingSteve FeinbergSundar PichaiElon MuskAlex KarpBrian ArmstrongTom LeeAmon JaversJoe LivorniaJensen HuangKash PatelTobias Lutke