Amit Kukreja
TSM CRUSHES EARNINGS, META TAKES ANOTHER APPLE EXEC, EARNINGS CONTINUE STRONG | MARKET OPEN
10/16/2025, 3:18:52 PM
Economic Summary
- TSMC (TSM) reported a blowout quarter with revenue $33.1B vs $31.5B and EPS beat, guiding to $32–33.4B; GPUs made up 57% of revenue, North American customers were 76% of sales, and management plans a second Arizona fab — implying sustained AI-driven chip demand and U.S. onshoring tailwinds for suppliers like AMCR and ASML.
- Earnings season early signs: Charles Schwab showed strong growth (EPS +70% YoY, revenue +27% YoY), and United Airlines guided to record Q4 operating income, while JPMorgan/Citi noted lower-than-expected delinquencies — collectively suggesting consumer resilience and healthier financials than feared.
- Housing sentiment improved: NAHB builder sentiment rose five points to 37 in October (highest since April); future sales expectations crossed positive territory (54), driven by slightly lower mortgage rates and expectations of Fed easing, supporting homebuilder stocks.
- Gold and safe-haven flows are notable: gold prices are rallying to new highs while only ~2.4% of investors hold allocations to gold, and central-bank purchases continue — meaning further retail/institutional adoption could fuel additional upside in precious metals.
- AI hyperscaler deals are reshaping capex: large commitments (e.g., AMD/OpenAI, Broadcom, NVIDIA deals) imply massive AI infrastructure CapEx and strong demand for memory (MU), GPUs (NVDA/AMD), and semiconductor equipment (ASML), driving multi-year growth expectations across the chip ecosystem.
Bullish
- TSMC's GPU-driven revenue surge validates strong AI demand.
- Onshoring fabs in Arizona benefits U.S. supply-chain partners like AMCR.
- Brokerage and travel data point to resilient consumer and continued earnings strength.
- Cloud and AI platform partnerships (Palantir + Snowflake) accelerate enterprise adoption.
Bearish
- Some high-flyers look exhausted after big rallies and may be due for a reset or consolidation.
- Heavy short interest and alleged manipulation pressure certain names (e.g., GRAB, HIMS).
- MicroStrategy and bitcoin miners remain exposed to weak Bitcoin price action.
- Companies that give up equity (AMD/OpenAI) may signal weaker bargaining power or execution risk.
Bullish tickers
TSMAMCRNVDAAMDMUAMZNPLTRSNOW
Bearish tickers
MSTRHIMSGRAB
TSM
Bullish
GPU demand drove 57% of revenue; guiding upside and plans for a second Arizona fab support sustained AI tailwinds and U.S. onshoring.
Bearish
Stock has rallied strongly YTD (much positive outlook priced in), so further upside may be muted without continued upside surprises.
AMCR
1 price targets
50
Bullish
Direct beneficiary of TSMC's Arizona fabs and onshoring; limited U.S. advanced-packaging competition supports re-rating potential.
Bearish
Margins and revenue growth must materially improve to justify a re-rating; competition exists in packaging.
NVDA
Bullish
Central to AI-driven chip demand; TSMC results act as a strong demand proxy ahead of NVIDIA earnings.
Bearish
High valuations and large prior gains risk short-term consolidation if momentum fades.
AMD
1 price targets
600
Bullish
OpenAI partnership and multi-gigawatt commitments materially expand revenue runway and strengthen supply-chain access; upside path to ~$600 implied by parties.
Bearish
Giving OpenAI 10% equity signals AMD needed to sweeten the deal and may reflect competitive positioning versus NVIDIA.
MU
2 price targets
225245
Bullish
Surging AI/data center demand and tight HBM-related supply are driving price-target upgrades and fresh momentum.
Bearish
Memory can be cyclical and faces supply/demand swings.
AMZN
Bullish
Attractive EV/EBITDA vs peers, robotics and AI-driven margin inflection could meaningfully expand operating profits over time.
Bearish
Near-term stock movement may be muted; large size limits rapid re-rating.
GRAB
1 price targets
10
Bullish
Large cash balance (~$7B) and regional growth optionality support long-term upside and potential M&A/deployment of cash.
Bearish
High short interest and suspected manipulation weigh on price; short-term liquidity/float dynamics remain a risk.
PLTR
Bullish
Partnership with Snowflake improves interoperability and expands go-to-market without forcing customer migration.
Bearish
Execution and competitive dynamics in AI enterprise software remain challenges.
SNOW
Bullish
Native integration with Palantir reduces customer friction and accelerates intelligent app deployment and time-to-value.
Bearish
Large incumbent customers could limit immediate share gains versus integrated competitors.
HIMS
Bullish
Recent product launches (H.E.R.S.) drove strong momentum and a large prior run-up year-to-date.
Bearish
High short float (~35%) and possible retail-driven volatility; CEO's public social engagement criticized.
ASTS
Bullish
Partnerships like Verizon and broadband distribution thesis underpin rapid multi-month gains and investor enthusiasm.
Bearish
Highly volatile headline-driven moves; still speculative pending sustained fundamentals.
ASML
Bullish
Crucial lithography equipment for advanced nodes and emerging packaging demand supports multi-year secular growth.
Bearish
Management tone appeared less aggressively bullish than TSMC despite solid results.
People mentioned
AmitJoseChadAndrew DunhamAnthony TanLisa SuBuddy HughesTim CookMark BenioffSam AltmanTannerPeter ChapmanSteven MoranDom ChuSarahChrisAnn Pan ManKey YangVladRusheelVinnyDonald Trump