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20-minute Rivian Deep Dive: Hamid's Full Breakdown for Investors
11/6/2025, 5:23:32 PM
Economic Summary
- Rivian (RIVN) beat top-line estimates by ~4% with revenue around $1.5B and reported a loss per share of $0.65 versus an expected $0.87, yet the stock jumped ~23% after the report.
- Rivian claims a durable moat as one of the few full-stack EV builders — owning software, specialized electronics, battery tech, a charging network, and direct sales/service — which could produce long-term competitive advantages versus traditional OEMs.
- Autonomy is central: Rivian plans an Autonomy Day demo (Dec 11), uses higher-resolution cameras plus LiDAR/radar, and envisions point-to-point hands-free driving; this tech could be monetized via subscriptions or robotaxi services.
- Financials remain risky: Rivian historically lost money per vehicle and has burned ~ $22B, but combined vehicle+software gross margin was modestly positive (~2%) in the latest quarter, and R2 is expected to lower per-unit costs materially.
- Macro/industry view: incumbents face disruptive threats from full-stack EV and autonomy players; even if vehicle volumes shift, a multi-trillion-dollar mobility market persists with major winners likely among specialized EV firms, Chinese EV companies, and Tesla.
Bullish
- Rivian is a rare full-stack EV player (software, electronics, batteries, charging, sales/service).
- Higher-resolution cameras plus LiDAR/radar could accelerate safer autonomy and improve product differentiation.
- Robotaxi opportunity and potential partnerships or an owned fleet could unlock new high-margin revenue.
- Next-generation R2 and software subscriptions could materially improve margins and per-vehicle economics.
Bearish
- Rivian still loses money on every vehicle and has recorded about $22 billion in cumulative losses.
- Smaller installed base (~50,000 vehicles) limits autonomy data compared with Tesla's fleet advantage.
- Unit economics remain fragile — higher per-vehicle costs during early production cycles.
- Competing incumbents and deep-pocketed rivals could pressure market share and margins.
Bullish tickers
RIVNTSLAFGM
Bearish tickers
RIVNUBERLYFT
RIVN
1 price targets
15.42
Bullish
Full-stack EV company with software, hardware, battery, charging, autonomy roadmap and robotaxi/subscription monetization potential.
Bearish
Still losing money per vehicle, cumulative ~$22B losses, unit-economics fragile despite recent margin improvement.
TSLA
Bullish
Massive fleet provides autonomy training data advantage; proven profitability and neural-net approach to autonomy.
Bearish
Scaling Tesla further (10x) requires significant additional successful execution across many ambitious initiatives.
UBER
Bullish
Large two-sided network and customer base remain valuable assets in current ride-hailing market.
Bearish
Vulnerable to robo-taxi competition that could undercut pricing and disintermediate driver supply.
LYFT
Bullish
Established regional presence and network effects in ride-hailing markets.
Bearish
Also exposed to displacement by autonomous fleets and pricing pressure from robotaxi entrants.
F
Bullish
Scale and manufacturing experience could be leveraged if incumbents successfully adapt to EV transition.
Bearish
Traditional OEMs face challenges transitioning to full-stack EV models and software-centric vehicles.
GM
Bullish
Large scale and resources provide a path to compete if execution improves.
Bearish
Risk of being outcompeted by full-stack EV-native players given slower software-centric transformation.
VW
Bullish
Global scale and partnerships could help bridge technology gaps if deployed effectively.
Bearish
Even large incumbents face long, capital-intensive transitions to build full-stack EV capabilities.
ABNB
Bullish
Network effects in two-sided markets make Airbnb-style competition harder than localized ride-hailing disruption.
Bearish
Two-sided marketplaces are defensible; difficult for new entrants to scale both sides quickly.
People mentioned
RJ ScaringeElon MuskClay Christensen