Buy Hold Rant
$BMBL Stock Analysis: Why Investors Are Missing This Hidden Growth Story
11/6/2025, 5:34:31 PM
Economic Summary
- Bumble (BMBL) reported revenue of $246M (beat $244M) with EPS $0.33 (below $0.48 expected); company is profitable with net earnings $51M and adjusted EBITDA $83M.
- Annualizing the quarter's EPS (~$0.33) implies roughly $1.30 of earnings per share, putting Bumble at a very low implied PE (~4) given a ~$5.42 share price.
- Match Group (MTCH) revenue is essentially stagnant (year-over-year ~+2%), with product-level divergence: Hinge growing (~+26%) while Tinder is down (~-4%).
- Market is valuing peers differently: Match trading at ~2.3x sales while Bumble trades at ~0.6x sales, indicating a large valuation mismatch among dating companies.
Bullish
- Bumble trading at a very low PE (~4) vs reported profitability.
- Bumble showing solid net earnings and adjusted EBITDA despite revenue softness.
- Rivian and other small caps can move sharply higher if large buyers enter.
Bearish
- Bumble's revenue is down year-over-year and total paying users have declined.
- Management-driven user curation (reducing spam) may intentionally shrink paying user base.
- Q4 outlook (or forward guidance) appears weaker than current quarter, suggesting near-term decline.
- Match Group shows stagnating top-line growth, indicating softness across the online dating market.
Bullish tickers
BMBLRIVN
Bearish tickers
BMBLMTCH
BMBL
Bullish
Company is profitable (net income $51M, adj. EBITDA $83M) and trading at a very low implied PE (~4), suggesting valuation mismatch opportunity.
Bearish
Revenue down YoY and paying users declined; guidance/forward quarter appears weaker; management actions could shrink user base.
MTCH
Bullish
Hinge growth offsets Tinder softness; market rewarded Match despite an EPS miss, showing investor appetite.
Bearish
Top-line largely stagnant (~2% YoY) with mixed product performance and an EPS decline noted.
RIVN
Bullish
Small-cap status means single large buyers can drive rapid price appreciation; speaker bought more after a bounce.
Bearish
Volatile trading and dependent on sentiment; no operational details argued as a strength in this discussion.
GRINDR
Bullish
Included in valuation-comparison thesis that could benefit if market re-rates the group.
Bearish
Mentioned as part of a group of dating comps with similar challenges; implied valuation concerns.
People mentioned
Whitney