Buy Hold Rant
Bumble, Google, and Amazon: Slow-Growth Stocks to Bet On
10/23/2025, 6:33:37 PM
Economic Summary
- Bumble (BMBL) is generating strong free cash flow and trades at roughly 0.6x revenues and about 3x free cash flow last quarter, implying a potentially large valuation upside if costs are optimized or revenue stabilizes.
- Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) remains relatively inexpensive on P/E and P/S metrics versus other tech, with revenues still growing and a portfolio of nine products exceeding one billion users, signaling durable scale despite execution concerns.
- Amazon (AMZN) demonstrated business resilience when an AWS outage had minimal negative stock impact, illustrating high customer stickiness and the difficulty of dislodging large cloud incumbents.
- A recurring theme: founder-led companies (examples cited: Bezos, Jobs, Page/Brin) are perceived to execute AI and product pivots faster than current non-founder CEOs, affecting strategic agility and investor sentiment.
Bullish
- Bumble is highly profitable on free cash flow and appears deeply undervalued.
- Alphabet/Google remains dominant with multiple billion-user products and continued revenue growth.
- Amazon’s core business and AWS exhibit strong customer stickiness and resilience to outages.
Bearish
- Bumble may never regain revenue growth and relies on cost cutting to justify its valuation.
- Alphabet/Google shows execution problems and fragmented AI/product integration under current management.
- Amazon has slowed AI execution since Jeff Bezos left, suggesting missed opportunities and weaker innovation pace.
Bullish tickers
BMBLGOOGLAMZN
Bearish tickers
BMBLGOOGLAMZN
BMBL
Bullish
Highly profitable free cash flow business trading cheaply (~0.6x revenue, ~3x FCF); upside from optimization or founder focus.
Bearish
Limited revenue growth risk; valuation depends on cost cuts and uncertain long-term topline expansion.
GOOGL
2 price targets
150250
Bullish
Dominant platform with nine products over one billion users, continued revenue growth, and strong AI/product talent.
Bearish
Poor product cohesion and execution under current CEO; fragmented AI rollout and missed opportunities.
AMZN
Bullish
Core retail and AWS businesses are resilient; outage had little stock impact, showing strong customer stickiness.
Bearish
Perceived slowdown in AI execution and innovation since Bezos’s departure; missed early opportunities with Alexa/AI.
CRWD
Bullish
Still considered a strong company despite isolated outages.
Bearish
Past outage events caused short-term stock weakness when services went down.
AAPL
Bullish
Historically strong execution and product-driven success under founder leadership (contextual reference).
Bearish
Implied view that lack of founder leadership may slow bold product moves (referenced Steve Jobs hypothetically).
People mentioned
Sundar PichaiLarry PageSergey BrinJeff BezosSteve JobsElon Musk