Buy Hold Rant
Buy Bitcoin or buy MicroStrategy The real risk of owning companies that hold crypto
10/18/2025, 8:00:42 PM
Economic Summary
- Crypto is highly cyclical and the speaker expects a bear market within roughly two years, implying elevated downside risk for crypto-linked equities and assets (e.g., Bitcoin, MicroStrategy).
- Many companies tied to crypto have not been tested through a full bear market, increasing the chance some will fail; historical failures like FTX and BlockFi illustrate survivorship risk and the need for caution.
- MicroStrategy began accumulating Bitcoin around 2020, so its current strategy is relatively recent; owning MSTR is effectively leveraged exposure to Bitcoin, which may be less desirable than holding the underlying BTC or using a leveraged ETF for explicit leverage.
Bullish
- MicroStrategy offers leveraged Bitcoin exposure.
- Leveraged ETFs can provide intentional leveraged BTC exposure.
Bearish
- Many crypto-related companies haven't survived a bear market and could fail.
- MicroStrategy appears highly leveraged and hasn't been truly tested in a crypto downturn.
- Risk of FTX- or BlockFi-style collapses for firms that can't endure bear markets.
- Owning company stock (e.g., MSTR) can be riskier than owning the underlying Bitcoin.
Bearish tickers
MSTRBITMINEFTXBLOCKFI
MSTR
Bullish
Provides indirect, concentrated exposure to Bitcoin for investors seeking leveraged-like exposure via equity rather than directly holding BTC.
Bearish
Appears highly leveraged to Bitcoin, strategy started around 2020 and hasn't been tested in a crypto bear market; riskier than holding BTC.
BITMINE
Bullish
Could benefit from crypto upcycles if it weathers market volatility.
Bearish
Has not survived a crypto bear market yet and may struggle in a prolonged downturn.
FTX
Bearish
Cited as an example of a crypto firm failure that investors should avoid repeating.
BLOCKFI
Bearish
Used as an example of a crypto-related company that failed under stress, illustrating survivorship risk.