Buy Hold Rant
Can Rivian achieve Tesla‑level full self‑driving by 2026?
10/8/2025, 10:29:32 PM
Economic Summary
- Tesla (TSLA) already offers a point-to-point full self-driving capability today, implying a near-term product advantage and potential monetization edge from deployed fleet software.
- Rivian (RIVN) is likely to reach comparable full self-driving capability within about a year, since it has been collecting similar vehicle data and can adopt neural-net training methods.
- The industry shift to neural-net based training for autonomy lowers barriers: newcomers using that approach can close gaps within roughly three years, making fleet data collection a critical competitive asset.
Bullish
- Tesla already has point-to-point full self-driving capability today.
- Rivian likely to achieve similar FSD within a year given its data collection.
- Neural-net training approach is replicable, enabling rapid progress by entrants.
Bearish
- Competition could erode Tesla's FSD lead within 1-2 years.
- Rivian catching up reduces Tesla's long-term technological moat.
Bullish tickers
TSLARIVN
Bearish tickers
TSLA
TSLA
Bullish
Already has A-to-B full self-driving capability and a large fleet collecting training data.
Bearish
Rivian and others can close the FSD gap within 1-2 years, undermining Tesla's lead.
RIVN
Bullish
Likely to achieve Tesla-like FSD within a year thanks to fleet data and neural-net training.
Bearish
Currently behind Tesla by roughly 1-2 years in FSD capability.