Buy Hold Rant
Ep 10: Rocket Lab Surges & Tesla Disappoints + Rivian, Rocket Lab and Shopify Portfolio Updates
10/9/2025, 9:25:43 AM
Economic Summary
- Tesla (TSLA) announced lower‑priced Model 3/Y trims that may maintain volume but likely reduce average selling prices, limiting revenue growth in 2025–2026 and keeping material growth prospects further out (2027+).
- EV tax credit changes (e.g., $7,500 phaseouts) are shifting buyer economics and hurt some makers' near‑term demand; higher‑priced EVs like Rivian's R1 are less affected.
- Rivian (RIVN) is at an approximate $5–6B annual revenue run rate (trailing 12 months ~5.2B cited) with a price/sales ~3; substantial upside depends on R2 volume ramp and autonomy commercialization.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) has rallied, but its valuation (~$31B cited) far exceeds near‑term revenue scenarios (best‑case 2027 revenue cited around $2B), implying elevated price/sales and downside risk if execution misses.
- Macro events like a short government shutdown haven’t materially moved markets; upcoming earnings season is the more important near‑term determinant of market direction.
- For cash allocation, the hosts prefer high‑liquidity money market funds over dividend stocks given low risk and no lockup, especially while markets remain at highs.
Bullish
- Rivian (RIVN) R2 launch plus autonomy could drive material upside.
- Bumble (BMBL) is cash-generative and could expand with new product lines.
- Robinhood (HOOD) has long-term upside despite short-term regulatory risk.
- Buying weakness in high-conviction names used to increase position sizes.
Bearish
- Tesla (TSLA) faces limited near-term revenue and profit growth, making current lofty multiples risky.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) appears richly valued versus plausible near-term revenue, vulnerable to big drawdowns.
- Removal of EV tax credits could depress demand and average selling prices for some EV models.
- Regulatory or investigative risk (e.g., Robinhood prediction markets) could trigger large share price declines.
Bullish tickers
RIVNBMBLHOOD
Bearish tickers
TSLARKLBHOOD
TSLA
Bullish
Long-term potential (robo‑taxi, FSD) could deliver significant upside beyond 2027.
Bearish
Near-term revenue/profit growth limited; current multiples (high P/S and P/E) imply most growth already priced in.
RIVN
3 price targets
136070
Bullish
R2 volume ramp plus point-to-point hands‑free autonomy could drive multi‑year revenue expansion.
Bearish
Short-term sales and margin risk if R2/autonomy delays or execution problems occur.
RKLB
Bullish
Company executes well operationally and could be a strong long-term performer if growth materializes.
Bearish
Valuation appears disconnected from near-term revenue potential; vulnerability to big downside on any miss.
HOOD
2 price targets
8150
Bullish
Despite risks, long-term franchise and product expansion offer material upside; heavy personal conviction reflected in portfolio exposure.
Bearish
Regulatory or investigation risk around new products (prediction markets) could cause steep declines.
BMBL
Bullish
Generates cash and has product/management optionality that could unlock further growth.
Bearish
Requires meaningful new product/revenue streams to reignite substantial growth.
SHOP
1 price targets
166
Bullish
Was accumulated at low levels historically and produced strong returns when timing worked.
Bearish
Experienced substantial drawdowns historically; momentum can reverse despite fundamentals.
NFLX
Bullish
Previously generated large gains for the portfolio (150%+ realized).
Bearish
Seen as pricey by one host despite past strong performance.
OPEN
Bullish
Initial thesis faded after learning more about founder/management behavior.
Bearish
SPAC/Chamath-era concerns and governance/questions about management led to early exit.
SMCI
Bullish
Was part of past holdings with mixed results.
Bearish
Recent small unrealized losses prompted exit decisions.
T
Bullish
Owned historically as a cash alternative due to ~4% dividend.
Bearish
Dividend stocks can carry principal risk; better to use money market yield instead currently.
ZM
Bullish
Initially purchased when perceived as undervalued.
Bearish
Management execution and slow AI adoption concerns led to selling at a loss.
FUV
1 price targets
8
Bullish
Initial product concept was attractive for niche EV use cases.
Bearish
Founder distraction, slow execution, large cash burn led to heavy losses and eventual delisting/OTC trading.
CAVA
Bullish
Small historical position yielded modest gains (~15%).
FFBC
Bullish
Used as a dividend/cash alternative for yield during 2021–2022.
VRM
Bullish
Small historical gain; not a core holding.
WBD
Bullish
Held briefly post-spinoff from AT&T.
UBER
Bullish
Previously produced strong returns (~143% realized).
People mentioned
DustinElon MuskRJ ScaringeWhitney Wolfe HerdHamidAdrianIgorBen BamaniMoonluxBull BearVlad TenevBill AckmanChamath Palihapitiya