Buy Hold Rant
Ep 12: Tesla Q3 Report, ChatGPT Releases Atlas, Plus Netflix, Rivian and More!
10/23/2025, 9:06:18 AM
Economic Summary
- Tesla (TSLA) reported Q3 revenue of ~$28.1B, beating estimates largely due to EV tax-credit pull-forward; EPS met estimates, but Q4 revenue is expected to decline as credits phase out.
- Netflix (NFLX) showed decent revenue (~$11.5B) but missed EPS due to a one-time Brazil tax charge and gave mixed guidance, driving a ~10% share decline.
- Several high-momentum names (Rocket Lab RKLB, Robinhood HOOD, Eos EOSE) are trading with exuberant expectations; if execution falters, large drawdowns are possible given lofty valuations.
- Rivian (RIVN) is positioned for margin improvement from cost reductions and the R2 vehicle designed to be profitable at ~$45k, making R2 and upcoming Autonomy Day potential positive catalysts.
- AI/browser competition: OpenAI's Atlas browser represents a meaningful product challenge to Google (GOOGL) and highlights execution risk for incumbents (GOOGL, META, AAPL, AMZN) in AI integration and default experiences.
Bullish
- Tesla still has long-term opportunities despite short-term concerns.
- Rivian margin upside from R2 product line and expected profitability at scale.
- Google (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) remain dominant platforms with durable businesses.
- Rivian autonomy events and potential product surprises could be catalysts.
Bearish
- Tesla faces near-term headwinds: tax-credit-driven demand pull-forward and no near-term new vehicle catalysts.
- High valuation risk for stocks priced to perfection (e.g., RKLB, HOOD, EOSE) — big downside on hiccups.
- Netflix missed EPS and posted mixed guidance, sparking sizable share-price weakness.
- Analyst ratings are often rearview and can re-rate too late, offering poor downside protection.
Bullish tickers
TSLARIVNGOOGLAMZN
Bearish tickers
TSLARKLBHOODEOSENFLX
TSLA
Bullish
Long-term opportunity remains due to scale and potential product/robotaxi surprises; revenue beat this quarter indicates underlying demand.
Bearish
Short-term concerns: pull-forward from the $7,500 EV tax credit, lack of near-term new models, and high valuation versus revenue.
NFLX
Bullish
Revenue and underlying performance were reasonable; one-time charges cloud EPS comparisons.
Bearish
Missed EPS (Brazil tax charge) and mixed guidance prompted a large share-price decline.
RIVN
3 price targets
91014
Bullish
R2 product architecture aims for profitability at ~$45k, with margin improvements expected and Autonomy Day as potential catalyst.
Bearish
Autonomy demos could disappoint; stock is volatile and expectations are high relative to current execution.
HOOD
4 price targets
130170157146
Bullish
New product features (e.g., betting system) showed traction historically and drove prior rerating.
Bearish
Stock had run-up and is priced for high execution; susceptible to sharp moves on negative news.
RKLB
Bullish
Perceived as a SpaceX competitor with long-term optionality around Neutron launch expectations.
Bearish
Run-up driven by enthusiasm for space and future products; vulnerable to sentiment-driven pullbacks.
ASTS
Bullish
Investor enthusiasm could continue if product progress or partnerships materialize.
Bearish
High speculation with little current revenue; volatility driven by excitement rather than fundamentals.
BMBL
3 price targets
677.5
Bullish
High free cash flow and potential operational fixes could support valuation expansion.
Bearish
Slow revenue growth and mixed analyst sentiment limit upside without clear new growth drivers.
EOSE
Bullish
If future revenue executes as hoped, significant upside is priced into long-term expectations.
Bearish
Extremely rich valuation (multi-hundred times revenue) on very small current revenue; high downside if growth disappoints.
AMZN
Bullish
AWS and e-commerce resiliency remain strong; stock barely moved after a major outage, showing business durability.
Bearish
Perceived slower AI execution since founder departure; occasional outages highlight operational risks.
GOOGL
Bullish
Still a dominant company with multiple billion-user products and substantial AI assets; relatively attractive multiples for core business.
Bearish
Slow and uneven AI product execution and integration have allowed competitors to gain share.
PLTR
Bullish
Strong government/enterprise traction could sustain future growth if execution continues.
Bearish
Seen as priced for perfection in some scenarios and exposed to execution risk.
COST
Bullish
High-quality business with steady growth and defensive characteristics.
Bearish
Priced for near-perfect execution; any hiccups could meaningfully affect valuation.
META
Bullish
Large platform scale gives it the ability to iterate and improve AI products over time.
Bearish
Meta's early AI hardware and product experiments have mixed UX and execution issues.
IBM
Bullish
Reported earnings alongside Tesla; no direct bullish arguments in transcript.
Bearish
Mentioned only as an earner that reported alongside TSLA; no deep analysis provided.
AAPL
Bullish
Large ecosystem and device base provide a potential path for AI integration at scale.
Bearish
Apple tied to Siri and slower AI integration compared to nimble competitors.
People mentioned
DustinSundar PichaiElon MuskLarry PageSergey BrinJeff BezosSteve JobsRJ ScaringeJackie HughesBrian StoffelVijay