Buy Hold Rant
Ep 14: $RIVN Deep Dive, Plus Earnings from $HOOD, $AMD, $BMBL and more!
11/5/2025, 6:37:01 PM
Economic Summary
- Several tech and mobility firms reported earnings with mixed stock reactions: beats (Uber, Shopify, Robinhood, AMD) sometimes still saw share weakness, reflecting market focus on forward risks and narratives.
- Rivian emphasized autonomy development (hands-free and point-to-point) and potential ride-hailing partnerships; autonomy progress could reshape vehicle utilization and enable robo-taxi business models.
- Macro/market behavior: small-cap and low-float stocks (e.g., Bumble, Rivian) can move dramatically on concentrated buying or short-covering, making single-investor flows impactful.
- Valuation divergences noted: Bumble trades at a very low P/E given recent quarterly EPS, while companies like Joby and some EV names carry rich market caps despite limited current revenue.
Bullish
- Rivian's autonomy roadmap, high-res cameras, LiDAR/radar could enable meaningful robo-taxi opportunities.
- AMD reporting record revenue and strong execution, showing meaningful recent comeback.
- Robinhood beat revenue and EPS, implying a growing revenue run-rate and improving profitability.
- Bumble generates positive net earnings and low valuation versus apparent profit run-rate.
- Shopify beat revenue and EPS and posted positive guidance, showing business strength.
Bearish
- Uber lacks its own autonomy stack and relies on partners, risking competitiveness in robo-taxis.
- Rivian remains unprofitable with bankruptcy risk and is small versus Tesla's scale.
- Joby is highly valued with minimal revenue and unproven commercial traction.
- SMCI missed revenue expectations, showing stagnant growth and past accounting concerns.
- Bumble has YoY revenue declines and falling paying users despite higher ARPU.
Bullish tickers
RIVNAMDHOODBMBLSHOPNVDA
Bearish tickers
UBERRIVNJOBYSMCIBMBL
RIVN
Bullish
Autonomy roadmap, high-res cameras plus LiDAR/radar, and vehicle design position Rivian for robo-taxi opportunities.
Bearish
Still not profitable, smaller fleet compared with Tesla, and potential bankruptcy risk if execution falters.
UBER
Bullish
Beat revenue and EPS; large rider network could benefit from autonomous partnerships if executed.
Bearish
Doesn't own core autonomy tech; reliance on partners may weaken long-term robo-taxi moat.
SHOP
2 price targets
162163
Bullish
Beat top line and EPS with positive guidance, indicating durable underlying business strength.
Bearish
Experienced post-earnings volatility and notable share weakness despite beating numbers.
SMCI
Bullish
Provider of data-center technology that should benefit from ongoing infrastructure demand if execution resumes.
Bearish
Missed revenue expectations, growth appears stagnant, and past accounting issues raise concern.
AMD
Bullish
Reported record revenues and EPS beats; has shown strong growth and recent market outperformance.
Bearish
Still considered number two to NVIDIA; valuation metrics require sustained execution to justify multiples.
HOOD
Bullish
Revenue and EPS beats with a growing revenue run-rate and improving profitability metrics.
Bearish
After-hours weakness despite beats; some product partnerships (mortgages) appear murky in economics.
BMBL
2 price targets
5.425.02
Bullish
Generating net earnings and adjusted EBITDA with an implied very low P/E versus current share price.
Bearish
Revenue down ~10% YoY and paying users declined, creating execution questions.
JOBY
Bullish
Long-term vision of quiet electric air taxis with potentially easier autonomy and attractive use cases.
Bearish
High market cap with little current revenue and unproven commercial deliveries.
People mentioned
RJ ScaringeDara KhosrowshahiTravis KalanickElon MuskWhitney Wolfe HerdHamidLorenzo DeVivoBrandonDustin