Buy Hold Rant
Ep 7: Elon Buys $1B of Tesla, Rocket Lab Raises $750M Cash, the Latest Portfolio Moves and More!
9/17/2025, 9:04:43 AM
Economic Summary
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) announced a $750M equity raise that investors viewed as dilutive (~3%), causing a ~12.5% sell-off, but it materially extends runway for Neutron and acquisitions and reduces survival risk.
- Meta (META) is launching new smart glasses (rumored sub-$800 display version plus wristband input) at MetaConnect, leveraging hardware, AI, and existing distribution to push augmented-reality use cases, though expectations are high.
- Rivian (RIVN) has advanced product, charging infrastructure, and a multi-billion-dollar partnership with VW for licensing; upcoming R2 deliveries and an autonomy event are material re-rating catalysts but timing matters.
- Adobe (ADBE) reported revenue and EPS beats (about 10% revenue growth, 13% EPS growth), trading nearer all-time highs as it integrates AI into its suite, though AI also represents competitive disruption risk.
- Tesla (TSLA) headline purchases and prior large share sales by Elon Musk highlight governance and narrative risk; political commentary and hiring/talent challenges may be weighing on execution and growth prospects.
- Bloom Energy (BE) and other energy names saw sharp moves disconnected from fundamental revenue growth, illustrating sentiment-driven rallies where valuation metrics (very high P/E and P/S) look disconnected from execution.
Bullish
- Rocket Lab raised capital to fund Neutron and acquisitions, improving runway.
- Meta (META) appears well positioned with smart glasses, hardware, software, and strong cash flow.
- Rivian (RIVN) has execution, OEM partnerships, and upcoming autonomy/R2 catalysts.
- Adobe (ADBE) posted solid beats and is integrating AI into core products.
Bearish
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) faced a 12.5% drop after announcing a $750M equity raise and perceived dilution.
- Tesla (TSLA) faces governance and execution concerns, talent drain from political controversies.
- Bloom Energy (BE) rallied despite weak revenue growth and very high valuation metrics.
- Rivian (RIVN) remains volatile and may not re-rate until R2 deliveries or autonomy proof.
Bullish tickers
RKLBMETARIVNADBE
Bearish tickers
RKLBTSLABERIVN
RKLB
3 price targets
72025
Bullish
Raise provides runway for Neutron development and acquisitions, improving long-term prospects.
Bearish
12.5% drop after $750M raise; market sees dilution and punished the stock.
META
1 price targets
778
Bullish
Strong hardware-software combo, Ray-Ban partnerships, and AI integration position Meta well in AR.
Bearish
High expectations ahead of MetaConnect could lead to disappointment if features fall short.
RIVN
Bullish
Execution, vehicle demand, charging network, and VW licensing partnership could drive a rapid re-rating.
Bearish
Valuation and sentiment remain volatile; re-rating likely tied to R2 deliveries and autonomy proof.
BMBL
Bullish
Trades cheaply versus peers (e.g., Match); potential upside if execution improves.
Bearish
Turnaround is not guaranteed despite low valuation; founder execution risk remains.
HOOD
Bullish
Not emphasized as a buy in this episode.
Bearish
Trimmed for risk diversification; volatile despite prior gains.
ADBE
4 price targets
340350420450
Bullish
Recent revenue and EPS beats and strong integration of AI into products support the stock.
Bearish
AI can be both a feature and a competitor, complicating long-term story.
TSLA
Bullish
Elon buying shares can be framed as alignment with shareholders, though impact may be limited.
Bearish
Stagnant sales growth, messy governance, high-profile controversies, and talent concerns weigh on outlook.
BE
2 price targets
1573
Bullish
Market enthusiasm has driven strong returns, though fundamentals are unclear.
Bearish
Stock surged despite lack of revenue growth; valuation metrics (high P/E, P/S) look stretched.
BABA
2 price targets
85162
Bullish
Substantial rebound from lows demonstrates potential for recovery over time.
Bearish
Had been sold at a loss earlier; recovery shows timing risk when exiting positions.
MTCH
Bullish
Used as valuation comparator to highlight Bumble's cheapness.
SHOP
Bullish
Mentioned as a past profitable sale in the portfolio.
T
Bullish
Referenced as an example of prior portfolio positioning in safer, high-yield names.
NFLX
Bullish
Bought near a bottom earlier and produced profitable returns for the portfolio.
MSFT
Bullish
Mentioned among major AI players alongside Amazon and Google.
AMZN
Bullish
Mentioned among major AI players alongside Microsoft and Google.
GOOGL
Bullish
Mentioned as a competitor in wearables/AI development (Google prototypes).
People mentioned
DustinAdrianElon Musk