Buy Hold Rant
Grindr Trades Higher Than Bumble. Is the Market Crazy?
10/30/2025, 6:44:07 PM
Economic Summary
- Grindr (GRND) has trailing-12-month revenue of $385M and a market cap around $2.9B, implying a 7.4x price-to-sales; it is not yet profitable, raising valuation concerns.
- Bumble (BMBL) generates roughly $1B in revenue—nearly three times Grindr—but trades at a far lower market cap (~$576M), implying roughly 0.6x revenue; recent $400M goodwill write-downs created headline EPS losses despite strong cash generation (~$60M in a quarter).
- The large valuation discrepancy between GRND and BMBL could correct if the market recognizes Bumble's underlying profitability or if Bumble shows renewed revenue growth or new product traction.
Bullish
- Bumble is likely undervalued given cash generation and one-time write-downs.
- Founder Whitney's return and execution could trigger a re-rating.
- Grindr founders pursuing a take-private implies belief in higher intrinsic value.
Bearish
- Grindr appears overvalued at a 7.4x price-to-sales while still unprofitable.
- Bumble's headline EPS are distorted by large goodwill write-downs.
- Market sentiment has punished Bumble, trading near ~0.6x revenue.
Bullish tickers
BMBLGRND
Bearish tickers
GRNDBMBL
GRND
Bullish
Founders contemplating a take-private above the ~$2.9B market cap implies belief in higher private valuation.
Bearish
Trading at ~7.4x price-to-sales with negative EPS, suggesting overvaluation versus revenue.
BMBL
3 price targets
678
Bullish
Operationally cash-generative and potentially profitable ex-write-downs; founder Whitney's return and potential revenue recovery could trigger a large re-rate.
Bearish
EPS distorted by a $400M goodwill write-down; market pricing near 0.6x revenue.
People mentioned
Whitney