Buy Hold Rant
High-Risk, High-Reward: Looking Forward to Rivian's Autonomy Day
10/23/2025, 5:46:55 PM
Economic Summary
- Rivian (RIVN) has a market cap around $16 billion; the speaker views this as a significant opportunity but acknowledges bankruptcy risk, making it a high-risk/high-reward investment.
- A poll cited showed 60% think Rivian will 10X over five years versus 40% for Tesla (TSLA); the speaker argues Tesla would need to more than 10x its $93B revenue to match the market caps of mega-cap tech peers.
- The MAG7 members cited (NVDA $4.3T, AAPL $3.8T, MSFT $3.8T, GOOGL $3T) sum to about $15T market cap on roughly $1.2T revenue, highlighting very high valuation multiples among mega-cap tech firms.
- Rivian announced an Autonomy Day on December 11 and is approaching R2 release; RJ Scaringe has set expectations for point-to-point hands-free driving by end of 2026, so the demo's quality could materially affect investor sentiment.
Bullish
- RIVN appears deeply undervalued at roughly $16B market cap.
- Upcoming RIVN Autonomy Day (Dec 11) and R2 release could be major catalysts.
- Some investors still believe TSLA has large upside potential despite high hurdles.
Bearish
- RIVN could go bankrupt in a couple of years despite the current optimism.
- Tesla (TSLA) would need more than 10x its current revenue to reach comparable MAG7 valuations.
- Autonomy Day could under-deliver and be seen as over-promising, hurting sentiment.
Bullish tickers
RIVNTSLA
Bearish tickers
RIVNTSLA
RIVN
Bullish
Speaker bought more; views ~$16B valuation as an attractive opportunity with Autonomy Day and R2 as catalysts.
Bearish
Company faces bankruptcy risk, stock price struggles, and potential disappointment if autonomy demo underwhelms.
TSLA
Bullish
Some investors in the poll still believe Tesla can 10x, reflecting persistent bullish sentiment.
Bearish
To 10x to comparable MAG7-like valuation, Tesla would need to increase revenue by more than tenfold from ~$93B, a steep hurdle.
NVDA
Bullish
Cited as a $4.3T MAG7 member that helps define the high-valuation benchmark for other large techs.
AAPL
Bullish
Cited as a $3.8T MAG7 member used in the comparison of mega-cap valuations.
MSFT
Bullish
Cited as a $3.8T MAG7 member used in the valuation comparison.
GOOGL
Bullish
Cited as a ~$3T MAG7 member in the combined market-cap discussion.
People mentioned
Elon MuskRJ Scaringe