Buy Hold Rant
Is Rivian a hidden gem as an investment?
10/8/2025, 10:31:52 PM
Economic Summary
- Rivian (RIVN) has roughly a $5.2B trailing twelve-month revenue base (about $1–1.5B per quarter, ~$6B run rate) and is growing; the R2 model launch is cited as the catalyst for material future growth.
- On a price-to-sales basis Rivian trades around 3.1x (market cap ≈ $15.9B). Tesla (TSLA) generates roughly $92B of revenue with a PS near 16; applying Tesla’s multiple to Rivian would imply an ~$80B market cap, roughly five times Rivian’s current valuation.
Bullish
- Rivian revenue run rate near $5–6B with R2 launch could drive significant growth.
- Rivian trades at ~3.1x sales versus Tesla's ~16x, implying potential multiple expansion.
Bearish
- Rivian's current valuation (~$15.9B) reflects execution risk and dependence on future models like the R2.
- Tesla has declining revenues and a high price-to-sales multiple (~16), implying expensive current valuation.
Bullish tickers
RIVN
Bearish tickers
RIVNTSLA
RIVN
Bullish
TTM revenue around $5.2B (≈$6B run rate) and rapid growth with R2; low PS (~3.1) suggests upside if multiples expand.
Bearish
Valued at about $15.9B today; growth depends on execution and the upcoming R2 model, so downside risk if launches or demand disappoint.
TSLA
Bullish
Very large revenue base and scale advantage as an EV market leader.
Bearish
Revenue is large (~$92B) but described as declining, and valuation is expensive on a price-to-sales basis (~16x).