Buy Hold Rant
Joby’s $13B air taxi dream massive valuation with almost no revenue
11/6/2025, 6:01:47 AM
Economic Summary
- Joby Aviation (JOBY) trades at roughly a $13 billion market capitalization against about $22 million in revenue, indicating the stock is priced for significant future growth or execution.
- The company reportedly has not yet delivered vehicles or generated meaningful unit-sale revenue, so current valuation is highly speculative and dependent on certification, production ramp, and commercialization.
- The eVTOL business case argues autonomy may be easier in the air than on roads — fewer obstacles, known takeoff/landing points, and less traffic — which could shorten technological and operational hurdles if proven.
Bullish
- Electric VTOLs promise quieter, simpler-to-fly aircraft for point-to-point travel.
- Airborne autonomy is likely easier than road autonomy due to less traffic and fixed endpoints.
- If certified and scaled, the addressable market could be substantial.
Bearish
- Valuation (~$13B) far exceeds current revenue ($22M), implying overvaluation.
- No vehicle deliveries yet, so revenue depends on successful certification and production.
- High execution and regulatory risk tied to unproven commercialization of eVTOLs.
Bullish tickers
JOBY
Bearish tickers
JOBY
JOBY
Bullish
Vision of quiet electric VTOLs that could operate autonomously between known points; technically simpler than road autonomy and potentially large market if certified.
Bearish
Valuation (~$13B) far outstrips current revenue ($22M); no vehicle deliveries and significant execution and regulatory risk.