Buy Hold Rant
Microsoft's owns ~27% stake in OpenAI, shares go up
11/4/2025, 8:08:37 PM
Economic Summary
- Microsoft (MSFT) now officially owns roughly 27% of OpenAI, an implied stake valued at about $130 billion at the last private valuation, and Microsoft’s shares rose on the news given potential upside if OpenAI continues to scale.
- OpenAI is expected to generate roughly $12–13 billion in revenue this year, nearly three times last year’s revenue, indicating extremely rapid monetization of AI products and driving investor enthusiasm.
- There is concern about an AI valuation bubble: very large private valuations and fast growth create risk of a sharp correction if expectations or revenue growth prove unsustainable, impacting OpenAI and stakeholders like Microsoft.
Bullish
- Microsoft benefits from owning 27% of rapidly growing OpenAI
- OpenAI revenue accelerating to $12–13B this year supports high valuations
Bearish
- AI valuation bubble risk could cause sharp repricing of OpenAI and related equities
- Microsoft’s 27% OpenAI stake is exposed if OpenAI’s valuation or growth disappoints
Bullish tickers
MSFTOPENAI
Bearish tickers
OPENAIMSFT
MSFT
Bullish
Microsoft gains significant upside from owning 27% of OpenAI (implied ~$130B stake); stands to benefit if OpenAI grows toward trillion-dollar valuation.
Bearish
Microsoft's 27% stake in OpenAI exposes it to downside if AI valuations collapse or growth disappoints.
OPENAI
Bullish
OpenAI is accelerating revenue rapidly (expected ~$12–13B this year, nearly 3x last year) and could become a trillion-dollar company, supporting high valuations.
Bearish
OpenAI's very large private valuation and rapid hype raise bubble concerns and downside risk if growth slows.