Buy Hold Rant
Rocket Lab has 10x - does it have more room?
10/3/2025, 3:22:05 PM
Economic Summary
- Rocket Lab was previously deeply undervalued around a $2–3 billion valuation but later appreciated substantially, highlighting mispricings in early-stage space companies (RKLB).
- The speaker cites a potential ~$2 trillion space economy within ~15 years; capturing even 1% of that market would make space companies like RKLB multi-baggers.
- Rocket Lab is evolving into a space logistics and services company with more recurring service revenue and cash on hand to acquire assets, which de-risks its business model compared with pure launch players.
Bullish
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) has shifted toward space logistics and service revenue, reducing launch-only risk.
- Huge total-addressable market (speaker cites ~$2 trillion over 15 years); even ~1% share implies large upside for RKLB.
- Founder-led management with strong cash position enables acquisitions and de-risked growth strategy.
- RKLB already delivered ~10x from low valuation, prompting the speaker to add and maintain a top position.
Bearish
- Space industry is risky; launch failures or technical setbacks can rapidly depress stock prices.
- Dominant competitors like SpaceX could capture disproportionate market share and pressure smaller players.
- Early-stage valuations can be volatile and speculative, leading to sharp downside if expectations shift.
Bullish tickers
RKLB
Bearish tickers
RKLBSPACEX
RKLB
Bullish
Has morphed into space logistics with recurring service revenue, founder-led team, strong cash for acquisitions, and large TAM.
Bearish
Vulnerable to industry setbacks and competition from SpaceX; launch failures or tech issues could drive stock down.
HOOD
Bullish
Speaker reported taking out more than double original investment and holding a large portfolio position.
Bearish
No explicit bearish case given; previously volatile but speaker realized large gains.
SPACEX
Bullish
Leading position in launch capability underscores high competitive moat (private company).
Bearish
Dominant private competitor often viewed as a threat to other space companies' market share.
BLUE ORIGIN
Bearish
Seen as having slower progress despite heavy funding, implying Rocket Lab should be valued higher.
People mentioned
Jeff BezosElon Musk