Buy Hold Rant
Rocket Lab Rockets Up 10%. Time to Sell or Hold?
10/9/2025, 4:14:07 PM
Economic Summary
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) is trading at a valuation implying roughly 15x price-to-sales versus a best-case ~ $2B revenue by 2027, meaning current prices require near-perfect execution to be justified.
- The stock has surged substantially on little or no news, driven by momentum and increased investor demand rather than changed fundamentals.
- Portfolio management decision: the speaker trimmed RKLB exposure to de-risk after the position grew to ~27% of the portfolio, preferring to take profits against tail-risk from launch/execution failures.
Bullish
- Strong momentum and retail buying pushing price higher.
- Execution could deliver rapid revenue growth toward a possible $2B run-rate by 2027.
Bearish
- Valuation appears disconnected from fundamentals, risking a sharp correction.
- Large concentration risk—27% of portfolio in one stock.
- A failed Neutron launch or execution miss could wipe out significant value (>50%).
Bullish tickers
RKLB
Bearish tickers
RKLB
RKLB
1 price targets
3
Bullish
Rapid investor enthusiasm and execution could drive revenue growth toward a potential $2B run-rate by 2027, supporting further upside if flawless execution continues.
Bearish
Market cap stretched relative to realistic near-term revenue; still losing money and vulnerable to >50% drawdown on a major launch or execution miss.