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Tesla’s “New” Models Explained: What It Means for TSLA Stock & Future Growth
10/9/2025, 4:13:06 PM
Economic Summary
- Tesla (TSLA) announced lower-priced Model 3 and Model Y variants, with a $36,000 Model 3 promoted as approaching prior $35k/$25k ambitions after inflation adjustments; this demonstrates cost progress but is not a major new design or product line.
- The removal or reduction of tax credits means the new lower-priced models are effectively about $2,000 more expensive versus a month prior, reducing the immediate consumer savings impact and limiting demand uplift.
- Price cuts risk lowering Tesla's (TSLA) average selling price and devaluing used inventory, which could compress near-term revenue and margins despite maintaining volume.
- Rivian (RIVN) is cited as having more product variation (R2, R3 pipeline) despite lower current volumes, posing competitive pressure on Tesla's volume models when Rivian scales.
- Analyst view: meaningful Tesla revenue growth is unlikely in 2025-2026; robo-taxi or other new businesses might start contributing in 2027–2028, but would need $5–10 billion to materially move the needle, while current valuation multiples (e.g., ~16x sales, >200x earnings) already price long-term growth.
Bullish
- Tesla reached a $36k Model 3 price point, showing manufacturing/cost progress.
- Robo-taxi could generate meaningful revenues starting around 2027.
- Rivian's broader vehicle pipeline (R2/R3) positions it to gain market share.
Bearish
- Price cuts devalue existing Tesla models and reduce resale values for prior owners.
- Lower-priced Model 3/Y may lower Tesla's average selling price and compress near-term revenue.
- No clear revenue growth catalysts for Tesla in 2025-2026.
- Rivian's upcoming R2 could steal volume buyers from Tesla's Model Y.
Bullish tickers
TSLARIVN
Bearish tickers
TSLARIVN
TSLA
Bullish
Hitting a ~$36k Model 3 shows cost reductions and scale; robo-taxi and longer-term initiatives could drive significant upside by 2027+.
Bearish
New lower-priced Model 3/Y risk lowering ASP, devaluing used cars, and leaving few near-term revenue drivers for 2025-2026.
RIVN
Bullish
Has multiple distinct upcoming models (R2, R3) that can win volume buyers and challenge Tesla's market share.
Bearish
Still limited volume today, so scaling execution risk remains before product roadmap pays off.
People mentioned
Elon Musk