Buy Hold Rant
Tesla's Roadmap Pivot, Robotaxi Over New Cars, and Is Elon Abandoning the Product Pipeline?
10/8/2025, 10:23:14 PM
Economic Summary
- Market reaction was muted because the new vehicles are not expected to materially increase near-term revenues; lower-priced Model 3/Y may maintain volume but could reduce Tesla's average selling price (TSLA), weighing on revenue.
- Competition from Rivian's R2 could divert some Model Y buyers when R2 reaches volume production, creating volume and market-share pressure on Tesla (TSLA vs RIVN).
- The speaker expects no revenue or profit growth for Tesla in 2025-2026, but flags a potential inflection in 2027 if robo-taxi revenues become meaningful.
Bullish
- Robo-taxi revenues could become meaningful by 2027 for Tesla.
- Rivian R2 may capture EV buyers from Tesla.
Bearish
- New lower-priced Model 3 and Model Y may reduce Tesla's average selling price.
- Announced vehicles unlikely to drive meaningful revenue growth in 2025-2026.
- Rivian R2 could pull Model Y buyers once produced at scale, pressuring Tesla volumes.
Bullish tickers
TSLARIVN
Bearish tickers
TSLARIVN
TSLA
Bullish
Robo-taxi business could drive meaningful revenues by 2027, offering a longer-term upside.
Bearish
Lower-priced Model 3/Y could lower average selling price and limit revenue/profit growth in 2025-2026; competition from Rivian R2 may reduce volumes.
RIVN
Bullish
R2 launch could capture Model Y buyers and gain market share if produced at scale.
Bearish
Scaling the R2 to volume presents execution risk; competition dynamics could pressure margins industry-wide.