Buy Hold Rant
The Atlassian paradox revenue doubled since 2021 but the stock is down 66%
10/17/2025, 1:30:11 PM
Economic Summary
- Atlassian (TEAM) has delivered substantial revenue growth, with quarterly revenue rising from roughly $600M to $1.38B and record earnings since 2021, indicating improving underlying fundamentals that could support higher long-term valuation.
- The stock experienced a large valuation re-rating: price fell from near $450 in 2021 to about $150 today and market cap contracted from roughly $120B to around $40B, showing the market previously priced in extreme expectations.
Bullish
- Revenue and earnings have more than doubled; latest quarter revenue $1.38B.
- Company reporting record earnings since 2021, showing strong fundamental growth.
Bearish
- Stock peaked at $450 in 2021, indicating prior valuation excess.
- Market cap once ~$120B on under $2B revenue — valuation mismatch risk.
Bullish tickers
TEAM
Bearish tickers
TEAM
TEAM
Bullish
Business fundamentals have strengthened—quarterly revenue grew from ~ $600M to $1.38B with record earnings—suggesting durable growth and potential upside if valuation normalizes.
Bearish
Valuation became detached in 2021 when market cap reached ~$120B despite under $2B revenue; shares fell from ~$450 to ~$150, reflecting risk of overvaluation and sentiment volatility.