Buy Hold Rant
Why 1% in a $2 Trillion Company Doesn’t Matter | Shay Boloor on Risk vs. Reward
10/2/2025, 7:15:21 PM
Economic Summary
- Investor manages portfolio as two parts — crypto and stocks — preferring to let a crypto bull cycle play out before rebalancing the stock sleeve.
- Strategy uses a three-bucket framework (bonsai, core, moonshots): moonshots are 1-3% stakes aimed at potential 10x returns while capping downside risk.
- Large-cap ‘anchor’ holdings like Amazon (AMZN) or Meta (META) are kept to limit portfolio drawdowns during risk-off events, reducing chance of catastrophic losses.
- Past market shocks (2021 bubble bust, yen carry issues, Terraform) influenced a more conservative tilt toward having stable anchors and smaller speculative positions.
Bullish
- Small moonshots can deliver 10x returns and boost portfolio alpha.
- Large-cap anchors (Amazon/Meta) reduce volatility and limit catastrophic drawdowns.
- Focusing on a crypto bull cycle could produce gains to fund rebalancing.
Bearish
- Holding 1% of your portfolio in a $2 trillion company provides negligible upside.
- Moonshots like Rocket Lab can fail (launch errors) and wipe out 2-3% positions.
- Crypto and other black-swan events (e.g., Terraform) can cause severe, rapid drawdowns.
Bullish tickers
RKLBAMZNMETA
Bearish tickers
RKLBTERRAFORM
RKLB
Bullish
Moonshot/early-disruptor in space logistics with potential 10x upside if execution succeeds.
Bearish
Risk of multiple launch failures or remaining a secondary satellite player could severely damage returns.
AMZN
Bullish
Large-cap anchor that likely limits downside in risk-off scenarios and provides steady, modest returns.
Bearish
A 1% position in a ~$2T company offers negligible portfolio upside and suggests a need to rebalance.
META
Bullish
Another large-cap anchor option to reduce portfolio volatility and drawdowns.
Bearish
Small allocation won't materially move portfolio; unlikely to deliver outsized returns quickly.
TERRAFORM
Bearish
Cited as an example of a black-swan crypto event that caused sharp losses and volatility.
People mentioned
ShaiJudd Apatow