Buy Hold Rant
Why Google with unmatched talent and 9 products with billion+ users let ChatGPT get ahead
10/22/2025, 10:58:03 PM
Economic Summary
- Alphabet (GOOGL) trades cheaply on price/earnings and price/sales relative to other tech, yet its revenues continue to grow quickly despite concerns that AI chat (ChatGPT/OpenAI) would displace search; this suggests valuation may not fully reflect ongoing fundamental growth.
- Alphabet's enormous scale — nine products with over one billion users — and deep AI talent provide a durable competitive moat, but fragmented product execution and branding missteps (e.g., Gemini product placement vs Gemini.com) introduce execution risk that could cede user adoption to OpenAI/ChatGPT.
Bullish
- Relatively inexpensive on P/E and P/S versus other tech.
- Revenues still growing rapidly despite AI competition fears.
- Massive scale with nine products exceeding one billion users.
Bearish
- Poor product cohesion and execution risking market share.
- Allowed ChatGPT/OpenAI to grow and threaten search dominance.
- Brand/product confusion (e.g., Gemini vs Gemini.com) harming user experience.
Bullish tickers
GOOGL
Bearish tickers
GOOGLOPENAIGEMINI.COM
GOOGL
Bullish
Relatively cheap on P/E and P/S, strong revenue growth, nine products with >1B users, and substantial AI talent with Gemini competitive to ChatGPT.
Bearish
Execution and product cohesion issues allowed ChatGPT/OpenAI to gain traction and risk search monetization; confusing product placement weakens user experience.
OPENAI
Bullish
ChatGPT's rapid adoption demonstrates strong product-market fit and a real threat to incumbent search monetization.
Bearish
As a fast-growing competitor, OpenAI may face scaling or commercialization challenges despite rapid user growth.
GEMINI.COM
Bullish
N/A — mentioned as an example of brand confusion rather than an investment case.
Bearish
The existence of Gemini.com versus Google's Gemini causes brand confusion and highlights Google's product placement problems.