Buy Hold Rant
Why Wall Street Analyst Ratings Can’t Be Trusted
10/23/2025, 6:12:28 PM
Economic Summary
- Analyst ratings are typically rearview-mirror assessments that change after stock moves; upgrades/downgrades often follow price action rather than lead it, so they shouldn't be the sole investment signal.
- Stock prices can diverge sharply from company revenue growth — for example, Rivian (RIVN) was cited as up ~376% over the past year while revenue growth lagged, implying valuation can outpace fundamentals.
- Fundamental execution — product roadmaps and actual revenue driven by those products (example: Robinhood, HOOD) — is a better forward indicator of future performance than technical signals like the 200-day moving average.
Bullish
- When analysts are overwhelmingly negative, there's larger upside if the company executes and gets re-rated.
- Strong product execution and revenue growth (e.g., Robinhood) can drive sustained stock appreciation regardless of prior analyst views.
Bearish
- Analyst ratings are backward-looking and often lag true company performance, making them unreliable for forward-looking decisions.
- Rivian appears potentially overvalued: stock up ~376% year-over-year while revenue hasn't doubled, suggesting price detached from fundamentals.
- Analyst price targets on Bumble (around $6–$7.50) look outdated and possibly misleading to retail investors.
Bullish tickers
HOOD
Bearish tickers
RIVNBMBL
RIVN
4 price targets
910146157
Bullish
If execution improves, analysts will likely re-rate the stock higher, which could further boost the price.
Bearish
Highlighted as potentially overvalued: stock surged ~376% year-over-year while revenue hasn't doubled; analyst targets have been reactive.
BMBL
3 price targets
677.5
Bullish
If Bumble executes and revenue accelerates, analysts would likely raise targets and the stock could rerate meaningfully.
Bearish
Many analysts set low targets (~$6–$7.50), implying weak expectations and limited near-term upside under current views.
HOOD
Bullish
Strong product execution and incremental revenue from new features were cited as clear bullish signals for Robinhood.
Bearish
Historically small revenue base at times meant high execution risk despite product improvements.
AAPL
Bullish
Speaker cites familiarity with Apple as an example where personal knowledge mattered more than analyst views.
Bearish
Analyst ratings can be slow to reflect changes even for well-known names; beware relying solely on them.
META
Bullish
Mentioned as a company the speaker knows well, implying potential conviction based on fundamentals rather than ratings.
Bearish
Analyst ratings are described as often backward-looking and may miss inflection points in companies like Meta.
NFLX
Bullish
Listed among companies where speaker’s own view mattered more than sell-side ratings.
Bearish
Analyst expectations can lag operational improvements and new revenue streams.
UBER
Bullish
Used as an example of a company the speaker followed independently of analyst recommendations.
Bearish
Sell-side ratings sometimes fail to capture future product and revenue execution.
TWTR
Bullish
Included in list of companies where personal analysis outweighed sell-side opinion.
Bearish
Legacy analyst coverage may not reflect current corporate realities; ratings can become irrelevant after major changes.