Crossroads
Analyst: PayPal is missing THIS! [Plus SoFi Stock Talk]
10/20/2025, 6:05:21 PM
Economic Summary
- PayPal (PYPL) is largely an international business (speaker cites over ~80% of pre-tax income abroad), so U.S.-centric views understate its growth potential and global network effects.
- Recent PayPal revenue growth was modest (around 5% last quarter, ~1% the prior), partly due to strategic Braintree pricing shifts trading volume for higher margin.
- PayPal has ~30 million merchants and ~300 million users; even small ARPU lifts from advertising or B2B services (estimated incremental ARPU ~$10–$20 for ads) can scale materially over that base.
- New e-commerce technologies like Agentic Commerce could deliver double-digit boosts (research cited ~20–30%) to e-commerce adoption, making participation necessary for payments players.
- Stablecoins are likely to be commoditized and adoption for consumer payments is uncertain; stablecoins alone are insufficient without a broad P2P network to drive value.
Bullish
- PayPal's global reach and PayPal World position it to be a dominant global digital wallet.
- PayPal's ad/B2B monetization and network effects across 30M merchants could drive meaningful ARPU upside.
- Robinhood's rapid product velocity, global push, and prediction markets can unlock large TAM.
- Square (Block) benefits from founder-driven product innovation that can create new revenue cycles.
Bearish
- Market perceives PayPal as a slowing, 'dinosaur' payments company losing relevance.
- Stablecoins and crypto payments may not gain mass consumer adoption soon.
- Square (Block) shows product vision but has recurring execution risks.
- Advertising and new initiatives are incremental versus PayPal's very large revenue base.
Bullish tickers
PYPLHOODSQ
Bearish tickers
CIRCLE
PYPL
Bullish
Global scale, PayPal World, Fastlane, advertising and B2B monetization give a credible path to re-accelerated growth.
Bearish
Perceived as a slowing, US-centric business; branded checkout growth doubts weigh on multiple quarters.
SQ
Bullish
Founder-driven innovation (Jack Dorsey) periodically unlocks new, valuable product cycles.
Bearish
Great product ideas but has recurring execution risk after visionary launches.
HOOD
Bullish
Relentless product velocity, global expansion and prediction markets can unlock substantial TAM and revenue growth.
Bearish
Regulatory questions around novel products like prediction markets could create execution obstacles.
COIN
Bullish
Well-positioned in crypto brokerage/exchange but faces competitive and regulatory pressures.
Bearish
Crypto market volatility and consumer hesitancy limit near-term payments expansion.
MELI
Bullish
Large e-commerce ecosystems like Mercado Libre remain important partners for global wallet strategies.
Bearish
Not directly criticized, but high-growth e-commerce names can outshine payments partners in perception.
UBER
SHOP
AMZN
M
CIRCLE
Bullish
Stablecoins could be useful for merchant flows but need network effects to meaningfully scale.
Bearish
Analyst view is underperform; stablecoin economics and differentiation remain challenging.
People mentioned
CrossroadsDan DoleAlex ChrissMark RaythamJack DorseyVlad TenevTim CookElon Musk