Crossroads
BMNR Stock: Down, but NOT out! (Here's why I keep Buying)
11/2/2025, 5:15:13 PM
Economic Summary
- Bitmine (BMNR) functions as a levered exposure to Ethereum (ETH); its stock performance closely tracks ETH price action, so ETH weakness explains recent underperformance.
- Bitmine is actively diluting shares to acquire ETH on-chain and is nearing ~3% of total ETH supply, with a stated goal around 5%, which supports long-term accumulation thesis.
- Lack of staking and no recent public share-count update are key operational gaps; staking would add yield and share-count transparency would clarify NAV estimates.
Bullish
- Bitmine continues weekly on-chain ETH purchases, moving toward its stated ~5% ETH treasury target.
- Lower ETH prices make accumulation easier, enabling larger future NAV upside when ETH recovers.
- Macro risk-on factors (trade clarity US-China) could boost ETH/BTC, helping Bitmine as a levered ETH play.
Bearish
- Ongoing dilution to buy Ethereum compresses NAV per share and creates shareholder dilution risk.
- Bitmine has recently underperformed Ethereum, showing downside if ETH stays weak.
- No public share count update or staking yield yet, increasing uncertainty around true NAV and income.
Bullish tickers
BMNRETH
Bearish tickers
BMNRS-BET
BMNR
Bullish
Management is consistently buying ETH on-chain toward a 5% target, supporting long-term NAV accretion if ETH recovers.
Bearish
Continued dilution reduces NAV per share; underperformance vs ETH and no share-count transparency raise concerns.
ETH
1 price targets
4000
Bullish
On-chain accumulation by treasuries and potential macro tailwinds could drive ETH price appreciation.
Bearish
If Ethereum price remains weak, BMNR will underperform as a levered ETH exposure.
BTC
Bullish
Mentioned as part of treasury mixes supporting crypto-treasury strategies like MicroStrategy.
Bearish
Not a primary focus; holdings referenced but no direct price thesis provided.
S-BET
Bullish
If S-BET accumulates ETH heavily, it still supports ETH price and the broader thesis.
Bearish
Could re-emerge in trading volume and siphon flows, reducing BMNR liquidity and inflows.
MSTR
Bullish
Shown as an example where holding BTC has worked, illustrating treasury accumulation strategies.
Bearish
Not discussed in depth; referenced as another crypto-treasury example with different dynamics.
GALAXY DIGITAL
Bullish
Acts as an on-chain/off-chain buyer facilitating large ETH purchases for treasuries.
Bearish
Mentioned as an OTC buyer; no direct negative case offered.
People mentioned
Tom Lee