Crossroads
Bootleg Weekly: HUGE Tesla news, IPO access (Klarna), AVGO, and BMNR.
9/9/2025, 10:01:03 PM
Economic Summary
- Tesla's proposed CEO compensation ties enormous market-cap and operational milestones to payouts; if achieved it would require ~ $7.5T in shareholder value and imply unprecedented scale for TSLA, but also forces long-term share holding which aligns Musk with shareholders.
- Software/SaaS names face valuation pressure (CRM cited) even as AI demand grows; winners like NVDA and AVGO benefit from increased chip demand, but competition is broadening the market.
- IPO dynamics remain frothy with many listings showing one-day pops then declines; investors should expect volatility and not assume instant long-term value on IPO day.
- Crypto market structure is shifting: monthly centralized-exchange spot volume for Ethereum outpaced Bitcoin, and Ethereum spot ETF inflows are meaningful, supporting bullish institutional appetite for ETH and related funds like BMNR.
Bullish
- New Tesla package aligns Elon to long-term shareholder value and forces multi-year share holding.
- Tesla XAI/Grok integration could be highly accretive to Optimus and robo-taxi prospects.
- RoboTaxi app downloads show strong early consumer demand versus incumbents like Uber.
- Ethereum spot ETF inflows and on-exchange activity are bullish for ETH exposure products.
Bearish
- Tesla's milestones (e.g., 400B adjusted EBITDA) are extremely ambitious and may be unattainable.
- Elon distraction or departure would be very bearish for Tesla operational execution and stock performance.
- Stock-based compensation growth could mask true profitability if revenue doesn't keep pace.
- IPO market is overheated; many recent IPOs have fallen after initial pops.
Bullish tickers
TSLAETHNVDAAVGOBMNR
Bearish tickers
TSLACRMFIGMAIPO_MARKET
TSLA
Bullish
New pay package and forced long-term holding align Elon to deliver shareholder value and could refocus his attention on Tesla products like Optimus and robo-taxi.
Bearish
Milestones (e.g., 20M vehicles, 400B adjusted EBITDA) may be unrealistic; brand/political risk and CEO distraction could hurt execution.
NVDA
Bullish
Continues to be a core AI/compute beneficiary; viewed as an anchor stock for the AI cycle.
Bearish
High expectations priced in could be vulnerable to broader market rotation or competition.
AVGO
Bullish
Broadcom is gaining traction with custom orders and has outperformed, showing diversification in the semiconductor landscape.
Bearish
Highly cyclical revenue exposure could suffer if demand softens.
CRM
Bullish
Sticky SaaS business model still offers long-term value if execution stabilizes; potential Grok integrations could be incremental.
Bearish
SaaS valuation compression and execution issues (post-earnings weakness) pressure CRM shares.
UBER
Bullish
Large incumbent with network effects; not dead yet despite potential robo-taxi competition.
Bearish
Could lose share in ride-hailing if Tesla robo-taxi scales and undercuts pricing.
WAYMO
Bullish
Mature robo-taxi technology and user experience; remains a credible competitor.
Bearish
Slower momentum relative to Tesla robo-taxi early app downloads.
PLTR
MELI
AMZN
GOOGL
DUOL
Bullish
Solid product with engaged users; founder/team execution could sustain growth.
Bearish
Edtech faces competition and product friction; not certain AI will disrupt them but risks exist.
CRCL
1 price targets
90
Bullish
Core stablecoin infrastructure could justify long-term value; fair-value discussion around ~$90 per share.
Bearish
Post-IPO volatility and initial pop risk; pricing can be frothy on debut.
BMNR
2 price targets
41.5240
Bullish
Ethereum-focused ETF/vehicle benefiting from rising spot ETH flows; attractive premiums/options yield for active strategies.
Bearish
Product risks tied to crypto regulatory changes and ETF mechanics; liquidity risk on niche listings.
UNH
2 price targets
315330
Bullish
Strong fundamentals; candidates for covered-call/spread income strategies worked well for the hosts.
Bearish
Short-term option assignment and volatility on swings could remove shares from portfolio.
ETH
Bullish
Rising spot volumes, ETF inflows, and staking revenue drivers make ETH structurally bullish.
Bearish
Regulatory or macro shocks could slow ETF inflows and price momentum.
BTC
People mentioned
Elon MuskTevisRoyEvanBrett WintonMark BenioffJeff BezosAmitTannerBrett AdcockChamathTom LeeChrisRonTravis