Crossroads
FEAR in the Stock Market | Fintech Friday
10/11/2025, 3:24:31 PM
Economic Summary
- Crypto experienced its largest single-day liquidation (~$9.4B in 24 hours), driven largely by margin/leverage and short activity, increasing short-term volatility and contagion risk (affects ETH, BTC).
- A Trump tweet about tariffs and potential trade escalation triggered broad risk-off flows; roughly $1.65 trillion left the stock market on the day, amplifying drawdowns across tech names (NVDA, SHOP, PYPL).
- Consensus view among hosts: Q3 results for major tech names (Mag7 / Spectacular 6 including AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, META) are expected to beat and could provide a rebound if geopolitics do not escalate.
- Tax code change (effective Jan 2026) limiting gambling loss deductibility to 90% may reduce profitability or participation for sportsbooks and prediction markets, posing structural headwinds for DraftKings (DKNG) and similar operators.
Bullish
- Large-cap tech (Mag7 / Spectacular 6) likely to beat Q3 and raise guidance, providing earnings-driven support.
- Crypto long-term adoption and tokenization trends remain intact; dips viewed as buying opportunities (ETH, BTC).
- NVIDIA’s dominant position and ecosystem positioning make it well placed to benefit from AI demand.
- Robinhood/Kalshi style prediction markets and tokenization could be growth avenues for brokers and platforms.
Bearish
- Geopolitical escalation (Trump tariffs / US-China tensions) could hit chip supply chains and AI hardware demand.
- Massive leverage-driven crypto liquidation signals vulnerability to outsized, fast drawdowns and potential contagion.
- New IRS change limiting gambling loss deductions to 90% could materially reduce sportsbook throughput and revenues.
- Large, possibly insider-driven short activity erodes trust and could scare retail investors out of markets.
Bullish tickers
NVDAAMZNAAPLETHHOOD
Bearish tickers
NVDATSMINTCDKNGPYPL
NVDA
Bullish
Dominant AI hardware position, strategic partnerships, and recurring demand for Blackwell/AI chips support a long-term growth thesis.
Bearish
Exposure to China-related restrictions and broad trade escalations could pressure NVIDIA’s supply chain and foreign demand.
SOFI
Bullish
Strong origination channel checks, DocuSign traffic spikes, and improving EPS outlook could drive a solid earnings print.
Bearish
High intraday volatility and macro risk could cut into short-term investor confidence despite platform metrics.
PYPL
Bullish
Past rallies show potential upside; long-term digital payments adoption supports recovery if fundamentals hold.
Bearish
Rapid reversals and political/tariff noise could send further downside if payments volumes or guidance get impacted.
SHOP
Bullish
Ecommerce and merchant tooling trends still underpin long-term growth case if volatility stabilizes.
Bearish
Large intraday selloffs highlight sensitivity to macro shocks and momentum reversals.
BMNR
Bullish
Hosts actively bought dips; positioned as a buy-the-dip play within their strategies.
Bearish
Highly volatile in the selloff and exposed to short-term liquidation dynamics.
HOOD
Bullish
Prediction markets, tokenization, and wallet expansion are potential long-term growth drivers for Robinhood.
Bearish
Competitive pressure and cyclicality could weigh; market-wide uncertainty may depress app engagement and stock.
DKNG
Bullish
Prediction-market disruption could erode core sportsbook advantages, but any regulatory clarity or product pivot helps optionality.
Bearish
IRS change capping deductible gambling losses at 90% could materially hurt sportsbook economics and user behavior from 2026.
AMD
Bullish
Strong product roadmap and gains in CPU/GPU share support secular growth with AI tailwinds.
Bearish
Competitive pressures in CPUs/servers could create near-term market share tussles with Intel and NVIDIA partnerships.
INTC
Bullish
Government support, strategic investments, and potential partnerships provide a near-term trade thesis.
Bearish
Long-term product competitiveness concerns despite recent upside; uncertainty on sustainable market share gains.
AVGO
Bullish
Broadcom’s strong financials and market-share gains support continued growth and resilience.
Bearish
Exposure to enterprise and semiconductor cyclical risk if trade tensions disrupt supply chains.
TSM
Bullish
Critical foundry role in the AI hardware stack positions TSM to benefit from rising chip demand.
Bearish
Geopolitical escalation with China could threaten Taiwan Semiconductor’s operations or global supply assumptions.
DOCU
Bullish
Spike in DocuSign traffic from SoFi indicates rising real-world usage tied to lending originations.
Bearish
Cyclicality in SMB and consumer adoption could be impacted by a broad pullback in consumer finance.
ETH
Bullish
Hosts view sub-$4,000 levels as opportunistic, citing tokenization and Layer-2 demand that could be deflationary.
Bearish
Leverage-driven liquidations and exchange issues can cause rapid drawdowns and execution problems for traders.
BTC
Bullish
Long-term adoption narrative remains intact despite short-term liquidation; hosts see dip-buying opportunities.
Bearish
Large shorts and leveraged positions can create sharp, confidence-eroding selloffs.
DLO
Bullish
Mentioned as a purchase by a host, signaling conviction in underlying business momentum.
Bearish
Emerging-market and payments volatility could pressure growth expectations.
SQQQ
Bullish
Small hedges paid off during the drawdown, demonstrating tactical utility in volatile markets.
Bearish
Inverse ETF use can be risky for long-term holders; short-term hedges can blow out in rallies.
HIMS
Bullish
Used in option-selling strategies by hosts as an income/positioning play.
Bearish
Volatility in consumer names can lead to quick corrections in sentiment-driven trades.
KLARNA
Bullish
Hosts referenced an IPO sale attempt; company-level thesis not deeply discussed but was a liquidity annoyance.
Bearish
IPO timing and lockup/flip rules introduced execution risks for short-term sellers.
People mentioned
Stephen FiorilloRoy CrossroadsTevisDonald TrumpXi JinpingJensen HuangVlad TenevFloryAhmedTannerDevin RyanBill ScottAnthony NotoKevin O'LearyAlex Chris