Crossroads
Fintech Friday: Thursday Edition - SoFi heads higher!
8/29/2025, 3:22:54 PM
Economic Summary
- SoFi (SOFI) benefited from multiple index inclusions (MSCI and Bloomberg 500), which can increase institutional attention and liquidity, helping price discovery and momentum.
- Anthony Noto took a large secured loan using SOFI shares as collateral with a maturity in 2028 and strike-like floor/cap levels (~$18.21 floor, ~$49.18 cap), implying lenders expect material upside or at least not a crash below the floor.
- Buy-now-pay-later and other fintech products face mixed public perception and potential regulatory pressure; while more transparent than credit cards, BNPL firms like Affirm (AFRM) carry cyclical and regulatory risk.
- Market behavior: investors are broadening exposure in this bull run, but caution is advised because high-beta/story stocks can be quickly punished in a surprise downturn.
Bullish
- Index inclusions and management buying signal durable upside for SoFi (SOFI).
- Robinhood (HOOD) rebrand, product execution, and cost cuts support long-term appreciation.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) momentum and strong demand make it a core secular growth play.
Bearish
- Affirm (AFRM) exposed to cyclical demand and potential regulatory scrutiny for buy-now-pay-later products.
- High-valuation names (e.g., CrowdStrike) require sustained growth to justify current multiples, risking downside.
- Robinhood (HOOD) remains cyclical and sensitive to macro/crypto seasonality despite recent execution gains.
Bullish tickers
SOFIHOODNVDA
Bearish tickers
AFRMCRWDHOOD
SOFI
8 price targets
18.2149.184535251468
Bullish
Multiple index inclusions, strong executive buying (Anthony Noto), improved product offerings and marketing momentum support further upside.
Bearish
Loan collateralization and potential future share sales create dilution risk; some investors remain skeptical about valuation sustainability.
HOOD
Bullish
Successful rebrand, product launches, efficiency gains and targeted acquisitions improved fundamentals and investor perception.
Bearish
Highly cyclical and crypto-sensitive; performance can swing with macro and crypto seasonality.
CRWD
1 price targets
120
Bullish
Leader in cybersecurity with recurring ARR growth and strong enterprise wins, a secular compounder over time.
Bearish
Current valuation demands sustained high growth (~25%+ long-term) to justify price; outage/pricing concessions pressured near-term results.
NVDA
1 price targets
170
Bullish
Strong demand and market leadership underpin further upside and continued allocation from investors.
Bearish
High momentum valuation leaves limited margin for error on disappointing quarters.
AFRM
Bullish
BNPL remains a valuable consumer product category if executed responsibly and with transparency.
Bearish
Concentrated exposure to BNPL makes it more cyclical and subject to regulatory risks.
PLTR
Bullish
Mentioned positively in culture/branding context; management visibility and marketing noted.
PYPL
Bullish
Referenced as a long-term holding for one participant; quieter recent commentary from the company.
LMND
Bullish
Small personal holding mentioned; interest exists but limited conviction due to complexity (insurance).
HIMS
Bullish
Cited as a top holding for one participant with confidence in the business.
SNOW
Bullish
Strong revenue growth highlighted; seen as a premium but high-growth software name.
SHOP
Bullish
Trades at a premium; long-term merchant/commerce importance noted.
DUOL
Bullish
Viewed as attractively valued relative to peers and a top holding for one participant.
CVNA
Bullish
Used as an example of a name that recovered investor interest after being written off.
GS
Bullish
Goldman Sachs acts as a close lending partner to SOFI and structured the CEO loan, signaling institutional engagement.
People mentioned
TevisRoyChrisTannerMikeAnthony NotoMax LevchinAlex KarpElon MuskBrad FreemanJosh HinesVlad TenevKathy WoodSteveAmitAlex Christine