Crossroads
Hims & Hers $1B Prediction: Is it time to add more shares? (New products)
10/16/2025, 12:15:05 PM
Economic Summary
- HIMS stock jumped ~16.18% after announcements about HERS product launches, and is up ~135.67% year-to-date, reflecting strong market interest in recent catalysts.
- The company launched menopause/perimenopause and testosterone offerings and says HERS could reach $1 billion in revenue by the end of 2026, expanding the addressable market.
- Hims & Hers emphasizes a personalization flywheel (MedMatch + data + branded marketing) and an acquisition (Tribe Labs) to bolster in-home testing and improve conversion and retention.
- Recent growth was aided by GLP-1 compounding through May, but that created lapping headwinds and a deceleration in core growth outside weight-loss products.
- Management's long-term targets include $6.5 billion revenue and ~$1.3 billion adjusted EBITDA by 2030, which will require international expansion and continued product-suite growth.
Bullish
- Launches of menopause and perimenopause specialty products expand HERS TAM and product breadth.
- Acquisition of Tribe Labs enables in-home testing, improving personalization and retention.
- Strong branding, targeted marketing, and MedMatch personalization create a flywheel for cross-sell.
- Company targets $1B of HERS revenue by end of 2026 and $6.5B revenue by 2030, signaling long-term ambition.
Bearish
- High short interest in HIMS could amplify downside if momentum reverses.
- Core growth has decelerated outside of GLP-1 products, indicating near-term revenue challenges.
- Lapping effects from prior GLP-1 compounding growth may depress Q3/Q4 results.
- HERS is currently less than 50% of the business, making the $1B 2026 target uncertain.
Bullish tickers
HIMSTRIBE LABS
Bearish tickers
HIMS
HIMS
Bullish
New menopause/perimenopause and testosterone launches expand TAM; strong branding, MedMatch personalization, and Tribe Labs acquisition should improve retention and cross-sell toward the $1B HERS 2026 goal.
Bearish
High short interest and noted deceleration in core growth outside GLP-1; lapping from prior GLP-1 compounding may pressure near-term results and makes 2026 HERS goal uncertain.
NVO
Bullish
Did not refile a patent in Canada, which the video notes enabled Hims to launch certain GLP-1 related products there.
TRIBE LABS
Bullish
Acquisition adds in-home testing capability, enabling better diagnostics and personalized treatment pathways for HIMS customers.
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