Crossroads
I just went HEAVY into this swing stock!
9/5/2025, 8:00:04 PM
Economic Summary
- Stablecoins are growing and are often issued as layers on existing chains; Ethereum (ETH) benefits from broad developer adoption and is the dominant settlement layer for many stablecoin flows, enhancing its long-term demand.
- Ethereum’s protocol dynamics (gas-fee burning) alter issuance economics relative to Bitcoin, creating potential disinflationary effects that support ETH’s value proposition.
- Institutions and some retail investors cannot hold crypto directly in certain accounts, increasing demand for public proxies (e.g., BMNR, COIN, HOOD, MSTR) that provide regulated exposure to ETH or crypto economics.
- BMNR’s stated strategy ties NAV to operational choices: when trading at a premium they may dilute to buy more ETH; when undervalued they can use cash or staking yield (~3%) to buy back stock, creating a feedback mechanism.
- Regulatory and listing-rule developments (SEC/NASDAQ guidance on treasury companies) can affect treasury-company governance; BMNR’s listing and pre-existing approvals were cited as a positive in this context.
Bullish
- Ethereum (ETH) is the leading layer for stablecoins and developer activity.
- BMNR provides an institutional-friendly proxy to gain exposure to Ethereum.
- BMNR's NAV/cash flexibility supports buybacks, ETH purchases, and staking upside.
- Options premiums on BMNR are high, offering attractive short-term yields for swings.
Bearish
- BMNR is highly volatile; swings can lose money quickly and move 5-6% intraday.
- Duolingo (DUOL) trading at a heavy premium — described as a falling knife.
- Solana (SOL) centralization and uptime concerns reduce its reliability for stablecoins.
- September seasonality for crypto is unfavorable and can pressure short-term positions.
- Staking yields (around 3%) are modest and may not offset downside risk.
Bullish tickers
BMNRETHCOINHOODMSTR
Bearish tickers
DUOLLULUSOLSBETBMNR
BMNR
3 price targets
504036
Bullish
Ethereum-treasury proxy with ~ $1B cash, NAV-driven buy/repurchase flexibility, staking yield, and strong communication appealing to institutions.
Bearish
High volatility and seasonality risk; regulatory headlines and crypto downturns can trigger sharp declines.
DUOL
Bullish
Good product and growth potential, but currently overvalued for short-term swing trading.
Bearish
Seen as trading at a heavy premium and a risky swing; speaker lost money on a small position.
LULU
Bullish
Solid long-term fundamentals as a hold, though recently beaten down.
Bearish
Recent earnings led to sharp declines; speaker hit max loss and exited swing positions.
MSTR
Bullish
Proven proxy that has historically worked well for shareholders seeking crypto exposure.
Bearish
Concentrated exposure to Bitcoin creates single-asset risk for shareholders.
COIN
Bullish
Exchange proxy that offers institutional exposure to crypto without direct asset custody.
Bearish
Exchanges are exposed to regulatory and market volatility tied to crypto cycles.
HOOD
Bullish
Accessible retail proxy for crypto exposure and trading, useful for some investors.
Bearish
Platform and regulatory risks; proxy exposure can still suffer during downturns.
SBET
Bullish
Operates an ETH-treasury model but perceived as less disciplined than peers.
Bearish
Accused of diluting shareholders instead of consistently buying back when appropriate.
SOL
Bullish
Offers speed and efficiency, which can be advantageous for certain dApps.
Bearish
Perceived centralization and past uptime issues reduce reliability for stablecoin infrastructure.
ETH
Bullish
Dominant smart-contract layer for stablecoins and dApps, strong developer ecosystem, and fee-burning dynamics supporting long-term demand.
Bearish
Subject to regulatory risk, seasonal weakness, and only modest staking yields (~3%).
People mentioned
Tom LeeCathie Wood