Crossroads
Is CRM stock deep value, or a value trap? | Market Madness with Steve
9/20/2025, 3:18:36 AM
Economic Summary
- Falling interest rates are being priced into consumer finance names like SOFI, with investors expecting higher originations and improved monetization as rates cut, which helped SOFI move from single digits to the $20–$30 range.
- Retail investor influence (via platforms like HOOD) is reshaping narrative-driven valuations, benefiting companies embraced by retail even when fundamentals lag relative to peers (example: PLTR trading at much higher multiples than CRM).
- Corporate capital allocation (buybacks and potential dividends) is a central valuation lever; analysts argue PYPL's aggressive buybacks and a potential dividend could unlock material shareholder value and attract new ETF flows.
- Strategic partnerships (e.g., PYPL + Google/GOOGL for payments, cloud and ads) can drive incremental volume and monetization, creating revenue tailwinds that may not be fully appreciated by the market near term.
- Large enterprise software franchises like CRM have durable customer bases and strong free cash flow, making them potential value plays if narrative improves at events like Dreamforce and on quarterly guidance.
Bullish
- Rate cuts and monetization of originations support SoFi (SOFI) upside.
- Palantir (PLTR) strong growth trajectory could reach ~$10B revenue in a few years.
- Salesforce (CRM) profitable with large buybacks and steady double-digit-ish growth.
- PayPal (PYPL) Google partnership and products (ads, agentic commerce) can drive revenue inflection.
- Large buybacks/dividend moves could re-rate underappreciated names like PayPal (PYPL).
Bearish
- Palantir (PLTR) appears richly valued versus revenue and free cash flow, pricing in many years of growth.
- PayPal (PYPL) top-line growth remains mid-single digits, leaving valuation vulnerable despite buybacks.
- Salesforce (CRM) risks narrative stagnation and potential AI disruption reducing long-term product stickiness.
- SoFi (SOFI) could see a pullback after a rapid rally; sustaining breakout above levels is uncertain.
- Retail-driven hype (Robinhood/HOOD) can create momentum without fundamentals, increasing downside volatility.
Bullish tickers
SOFIPLTRCRMPYPLGOOGL
Bearish tickers
PLTRPYPLCRMSOFIHOOD
SOFI
5 price targets
2025303545
Bullish
Rate-cut environment and better monetization of originations support continued upside and scaling.
Bearish
Rapid recent appreciation risks a pullback; breakout sustainability above $30 is uncertain.
CRM
1 price targets
350
Bullish
Large, profitable software franchise with steady double-digit growth, buybacks and Dreamforce-driven sales cycles.
Bearish
Narrative fatigue and perceived lack of retail attention could limit rerating despite solid fundamentals.
PLTR
Bullish
Strong top-line growth, important government contracts and a plausible path to ~$10B revenue in a few years.
Bearish
Valuation appears to price in many years of outsized growth; fundamentals still far smaller than market cap implies.
HOOD
Bullish
Democratization of trading continues to influence market narratives and bring new flows to trending tickers.
Bearish
Retail-driven volatility can produce non-fundamental price swings and downside when sentiment reverses.
TSLA
2 price targets
125124
Bullish
Continued retail enthusiasm and product demos keep attention on the name despite execution variability.
Bearish
Covered-call and options exposure can force unwanted share sales when rapid upside occurs.
PYPL
5 price targets
6860100115120
Bullish
Google partnership, ads and agentic commerce could drive a revenue inflection; buybacks/dividend could re-rate valuation.
Bearish
Top-line growth is only mid-single digits, leaving the stock vulnerable despite buybacks and product initiatives.
GOOGL
Bullish
Partnerships with payments firms like PYPL expand commerce footprint across Ads, Play and Cloud.
Bearish
Regulatory concerns limit strategic M&A opportunities for acquiring payments platforms outright.
NVDA
Bullish
AI demand remains a key market narrative that can boost related enterprise software and infrastructure names.
Bearish
Large macro or AI-driven valuation shifts could alter sector multiples and incumbent demand patterns.
People mentioned
SteveTevisTannerAnthony NotoMarc BenioffAlex KarpElon MuskAlex ChrissJim CramerJoseph CarlsonRoySpencerAlan