Crossroads
Market Pulse with Evan (Stock Market News) - Rate Cut Edition
9/18/2025, 3:08:55 AM
Economic Summary
- The market is pricing in Fed rate cuts (CME/FedWatch heavily favors a 25bp cut), and commentary expects Powell to emphasize data dependence rather than commit to multiple cuts; if no cut occurs, broad market weakness is likely.
- PayPal (PYPL) is rolling out offsite, transaction-based advertising in the UK and Germany using its transaction graph; this is a high-margin opportunity not yet reflected in the stock and could become material by Q4.
- Robinhood (HOOD) is developing Robinhood Social with prediction markets and easy sharing, which could create sizable advertising and engagement revenue segments independent of trading.
- A narrative is building around BMNR as a treasury-style vehicle tied to Ethereum usage and stablecoins (driven by policy like the 'Genius Act'); institutional demand, staking yields, and token burning dynamics could create lasting buying pressure if realized.
- Autonomy and mobility trends favor large tech and platform players (Uber UBER, Amazon AMZN, Tesla TSLA) and provide optionality for EV makers like Rivian (RIVN), while legacy automakers face manufacturing and debt challenges.
Bullish
- PayPal expanding offsite, transaction-based advertising to UK/Germany could unlock a new high-margin revenue stream.
- Robinhood Social and embedded prediction markets could become large, non‑correlated advertising businesses.
- Ethereum/stablecoin narrative plus institutional treasury demand could lift related traded vehicles (BMNR/ETH).
- NVIDIA has limited China revenue baked in so China headlines may be treated as temporary noise.
Bearish
- Augmented reality glasses (Meta) may be too early to displace smartphones; adoption could take 5+ years.
- BMNR/treasury play is speculative with unclear valuation mechanics and long time horizons.
- Rivian remains cash-burning and dependent on scale or potential M&A; profitability uncertain.
Bullish tickers
PYPLHOODBMNRETHNVDA
Bearish tickers
METABMNRRIVN
NVDA
Bullish
Limited China revenue baked in; company and Jensen Huang have strong relationships, making current news likely upside.
Bearish
China-related headlines can spur volatility; geopolitical export issues could pressure near-term sentiment.
META
Bullish
An $800 AR glasses product and integrated AI/hardware roadmap could be an important step toward AR/Metaverse monetization.
Bearish
AR glasses could be premature for mass adoption and may take many years to meaningfully shift consumer behavior.
AAPL
Bullish
Strong incumbent position makes immediate competitive threats unlikely; phones set a high bar.
Bearish
Apple’s iPhone remains a near-perfect form factor, making disruption by AR slow and difficult.
PYPL
Bullish
Transaction-based, privacy-first offsite ads in Europe leverage PayPal’s unique data and could be a high-margin new business.
Bearish
Advertising is nascent for PayPal and may take quarters to scale; regulatory/compliance hurdles could slow rollout.
HOOD
Bullish
If Robinhood monetizes social sharing and prediction markets, it could unlock substantial advertising revenue independent of trading.
Bearish
Robinhood Social’s product-market fit and monetization strategy are still unclear; execution risk exists.
BMNR
Bullish
As a treasury/vehicle buying Ethereum and earning staking yield, BMNR could attract institutional demand and rerate like MicroStrategy did for BTC.
Bearish
Valuation mechanics for a treasury-style ETH vehicle are complex and speculative; correlation to ETH price is uncertain.
ETH
Bullish
Stablecoin adoption, staking yields, and increased on‑chain usage could increase ETH demand and burning, supporting price.
Bearish
Future value depends on network competition (Solana, others) and unclear long-term fee/burning dynamics.
BTC
Bullish
Continued dollar-cost averaging and institutional adoption remain supportive for long-term holders.
Bearish
Volatility and regulatory risks remain; some investors are cautious compared to earlier cycles.
MSTR
Bullish
MicroStrategy demonstrated a precedent for treasury-style crypto accumulation that investors may emulate.
Bearish
Proxy exposure strategies carry concentrated risk and depend on crypto market cycles.
UBER
Bullish
Mobility and autonomous trends favor platform players like Uber as long-term winners.
Bearish
Competition from Lyft and regulatory/driver economics risks persist.
RIVN
Bullish
If Rivian scales production and achieves cost improvements, it could capture demand as a second major EV brand.
Bearish
Still burning cash and scaling risks remain; profitability depends on substantial volume and cost reductions.
LYFT
Bullish
Low valuations could allow re-rating if growth and profitability improve.
Bearish
Perceived as left-for-dead at times; competitive dynamics and margins are concerns.
TSLA
Bullish
Leader in EV and autonomy with strong ecosystem advantages.
Bearish
Brand and CEO controversies may alienate some potential buyers.
AMZN
Bullish
Large platform and logistics footprint make Amazon a plausible player in mobility and autonomy partnerships.
Bearish
Experimentation (robotaxi pilots) is limited and may be constrained by deployment scope.
PLTR
Bullish
Strong data/moat in enterprise analytics makes it attractive as a long-term holding.
Bearish
High valuation expectations create execution pressure.
V
Bullish
Still a dominant payments network with durable revenue streams.
Bearish
Payment incumbents could see margin pressure if crypto payments gain share.
SOL
Bullish
An alternative smart-contract platform that could capture some developer activity.
Bearish
Network competition and reliability concerns versus Ethereum.
GOOGL
Bullish
Alphabet’s scale and AI resources position it well for future AR/AI products.
Bearish
Past hardware efforts (Google Glass) failed; consumer AR adoption remains uncertain.
People mentioned
EvanRoyJensen HuangMark ZuckerbergTom LeeMichael SaylorCathie WoodVlad TenevJerome PowellMark GratherTannerTevisMatt MoneySawyer Merritt